Topeka — In the economists’ version of “Are we there yet?” — as in arriving at the economic recovery — Kansas may be in for a long trip, at least according to one report.
A recent forecast by Moody’s Economy.com predicts that by the last quarter of this year, the nation’s recovery will start, in the form of job growth, in a first wave of states that includes Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Texas and Washington.
Then seven more states will make up the second wave in the first quarter of 2010, the report said. They are: Alabama, Georgia, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota and South Dakota.
In the second quarter of 2010, Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Tennessee and Wyoming will join the recovery.
That leaves Kansas and 30 other states waiting until at least the third quarter of 2010 for job growth.
The forecast is partly based on the prediction that the current slowdown in high-tech industries has created pent-up demand that will eventually create jobs, according to the report.
“States that have a high concentration in tech-related industries are well-positioned to take advantage of this trend, which is particularly true of Colorado, Idaho, Oregon and Washington and to a lesser extent Texas,” said economist Andrew Gledhill of Moody’s Economy.com.
But Donna Ginther, an associate professor of economics and director of the Center for Economic and Business Analysis at Kansas University, disagrees with the report’s view of Kansas.
Ginther argues that Kansas hasn’t fallen as far as many states economically, and its recovery will be more gradual.
“We don’t grow at the rate of Texas, but we don’t fall at the rate of Texas,” she said. “Job growth in Kansas will lag the rest of the nation, but our job decrease has been substantially lower.”
The U.S. unemployment rate for May was 9.4 percent, the highest in more than 25 years. The Kansas rate for April, the last available report, was 6.1 percent.
Ginther says Kansas will have to alter its economy, however. Continued emphasis on bioscience, expansion of research at the KU Cancer Center, and the proposed National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan will help.
But, she added, “The state of Kansas needs to think about the new green economy. Any investment in green energy would help create jobs.”
Ginther is backed up by a new report from the Pew Charitable Trusts that said clean energy, “still in its infancy, is emerging as a vital component of America’s new economic landscape.”
Jobs related to developing renewable energy, increasing efficiency and reducing greenhouse gases are growing at a faster rate than U.S. jobs overall, the study said. In Kansas, so-called clean jobs grew by 51 percent from 1998-2007, according to the report, while overall job growth in the state fell slightly.
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