This year probably won’t be the year.

As much as city leaders want to be able to proclaim that 2008 will be the year that the area’s building industry bounces back, they can’t quite do it.

“I haven’t heard of anything upcoming that makes me think there is a turnaround coming right away,” Lawrence City Commissioner Sue Hack said.

The numbers in 2008 certainly haven’t provided any indication of good tidings. Single-family building permits for January and February totaled five. That’s minuscule for a community that for nearly 20 consecutive years recorded 300 or more building permits per year.

“There are definitely people out there suffering with their businesses right now,” Bobbie Flory, executive director of the Lawrence Home Builders Association, said of area contractors.

While a return to the good old days aren’t expected in 2008, there some glimmers of hope. Two major apartment complexes – The Links near Sixth Street and Queens Road and the Exchange near 31st Street and Ousdahl Road – are expected to start construction this year. The two projects are expected to add more than 700 apartment units to city.

Work also is expected to get under way on The Oread Inn, a multimillion dollar hotel project at 12th and Indiana streets.

As for a return in the single-family housing market, it might take a little longer.

“There is an expected improvement in the building industry, but it is not really anticipated nationally until the end of the year or even into 2009,” Flory said. “It will come back, but we expect it to come back slowly.”

Flory said the one positive with the current situation is that houses in the area continue to sell, albeit at a slower pace than the record years of the mid-2000s.

“The good news is that the inventory is shrinking,” Flory said. “The inventory of new homes has to shrink down some for building to really get started again.”

A more fundamental, issue, though may be job creation.

Bo Harris, CEO of Lawrence-based Harris Construction, said the Lawrence market is slower than others.

“We have a lot of business in Kansas City,” Harris said of his company, which primarily does commercial construction. “They have a lot going on over there. I don’t know what needs to happen here in Lawrence. On the job front, we probably need a success story.”

Flory agreed. She said the announcement of a major employer coming to town would inject necessary confidence into the economy.

“A large company coming to Lawrence, on a dime, could turn this housing situation around,” Flory said. “If you look around the country there are pockets that are doing well, and it is because of job creation in those areas.”

Hack said city leaders have heard that message loud and clear. She said getting more jobs in the community isn’t just important for the short-term prospects of a turnaround, but also are important to ensuring that the community’s long-term housing fundamentals remain solid. She said she worries that high gas prices may cause some Lawrence residents who are commuters to look for homes closer to their jobs.

“Lawrence is a great place, but you wonder how long people over time can sustain that type of expense,” Hack said. “We have to produce more opportunities for people to work in Lawrence.”

Hack said she’s encouraged that the private sector seems to see the urgency in adding new industrial space to the community. Economic development leaders have said the community loses out on new job opportunities, in part, because it doesn’t have the necessary amount of industrial and business parks to offer prospects.

But 2008 could change some of that. Proposals to turn property near the Lawrence Municipal Airport and near Interstate 70 and the South Lawrence Trafficway into industrial parks have been submitted to the city. Both proposals have created controversy. Neighbors in both areas say the areas are inappropriate for industrial development.

“It won’t necessarily be easy, but at least we’re working on the issue,” Hack said.