Climatologists expect warmer winter

Fall may be just a few weeks old, but talk about the upcoming winter already has begun.

This week, the National Climate Prediction Center issued its December-through-February winter weather forecast, and the outlook is drier and warmer than the area average.

“We’re still going to get snow and temperatures dropping below zero,” said Bryce Kintigh, assistant to state climatologist Mary Knapp. “Just not as much cold.”

The warmer temperatures could directly affect two main winter concerns: heating costs and hazardous road conditions.

Aquila spokesman Curt Floerchinger sees higher temperatures as a good thing for the company’s natural gas customers.

“If it’s warmer, then people should use less gas and therefore gas prices should be more stable,” he said.

Aquila adopts a “portfolio approach” for purchasing its natural gas supplies in the hopes of keeping prices competitive.

“We put gas in storage and we have purchases under contracts,” Floerchinger said of the approach. “We buy a lot of gas in the spring when prices are lower.”

While a milder winter might result in less gas usage, customers can take other steps to keep heating costs down. Floerchinger recommends weatherizing homes.

“Place plastic on your windows, turn your thermostat down a few degrees or purchase energy-efficient appliances,” said Floerchinger. “This process can result in a decline in gas usage.”

Wintertime also means the possibility of snow and ice, affecting road conditions throughout the city.

And the prediction for a milder winter comes as good news to Chuck Soules, the city’s public works director.

“The drier it is over the winter, the less ice we’ll have,” said Soules. “And the better our roads will fare as far as deterioration.”

A drier and warmer winter could mean less money spent on overtime pay for maintenance workers and on materials such as sand, salt and deicing materials used for snow and ice removal.

But even with the predictions for above-average temperatures, the city isn’t taking any chances.

“We will have materials available for what we feel is our typical winter,” Soules said. “We’ve had ice events as early as or earlier than Halloween which is in a few weeks. The guys are already prepared. They’ll get all the trucks and make sure all the equipment is working.”