Really tough and low probability.

That’s how one national polling expert termed U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback’s chances to be the next president.

National polls and even surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire have the Kansas Republican senator far behind GOP presidential hopeful front-runners Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

State and national pundits and pollsters say a scenario – although a long shot for now – could develop and make Brownback a serious contender for the nomination and even the office.

“He thinks he can do the job,” said Bob Beatty, a Washburn University assistant professor of political science. “Second, can he win it? There are certainly some very plausible scenarios where he can win the nomination. The general? Who knows?”

Most visits to Iowa

The field is still developing, and on Saturday, Brownback was the first major GOP candidate to officially enter the race.

A Zogby International poll of Iowa Republican voters this week had Brownback getting 1 percent of voters, well behind Giuliani and McCain. He also trailed former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 13 percent, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at 9 percent, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 6 percent, Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo and Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, who each pulled in 2 percent.

“What is missing from that group (of front-runners) is the position that Brownback obviously wants to fill,” said Joe Lenski, executive vice president for Edison Media Research, which conducts exit polling for six major news networks. “It’s the voice of a conservative Republican in the primary. What he’s got to do is force his way into that vacuum.”

For now, Brownback’s main chance appears to be in Iowa next January, where it is critical for candidates to get county party chairmen behind their campaigns, said Republican strategist Jon McHenry, a vice president for Ayres, McHenry and Associates in Virginia.

With the caucus a year away, Brownback has made the most visits to Iowa among Republican contenders. He also has Iowa ties on his exploratory committee, including Chuck Hurley, a former Iowa legislator.

Conservative in centrist split

Most say Brownback received a break when potential presidential contenders and conservatives George Allen and Rick Santorum each lost their U.S. Senate re-election bids.

“That led Sam Brownback especially to think and attempt to lay claim to the conservative base of the Republican party, and we don’t know how big that is,” Beatty said.

“He believes the last election indicated not a Democratic trend but that conservatives have lost their way,” said Allan Cigler, a Kansas University political science professor.

The Kansas senator is known for his socially conservative stances opposing abortion, gay marriage and embryonic stem cell research.

He has also made news in the past two weeks opposing President Bush’s plan for a troop surge in Iraq and calling for a political solution. Analysts said that was the least risky political position at the moment. McCain has been the loudest proponent of the surge, which could affect the race if the situation in Iraq improves or worsens, Lenski said.

“If Iraq is still seen as a failed Republican adventure, no matter how much Brownback comes out against the surge or current Bush policies, any Republican nominee is going to be saddled with the situation in Iraq,” he said.

Brownback’s potential success will also hinge on whether he can sell himself to conservative voters as presidential material in the early primaries, as they could support him or lean to McCain, Romney, Gingrich or someone else.

“At this point it’s pretty much going to be about him, his fundraising and his organization. He doesn’t need to have something happen to Romney for him to drop or to gain ground,” McHenry said.

Beatty said it’s not unreasonable to think Brownback could get 20 percent to 30 percent of votes in Iowa and New Hampshire if he campaigns well. Giuliani and McCain would need to split the centrist vote.

Vice presidential candidate?

Cigler said he believed Republicans will pick a more centrist or moderate candidate who would be less likely to be a polarizing figure. In that case, Brownback could provide an ideological balance to the Republican ticket.

“It’s too much work and too much sacrifice to do it just to make a statement or to get a message across. He can do other things if he wants to get some message across,” Beatty said.

Should Brownback emerge as the presidential nominee, the general election strategy would differ depending on the match up and the political climate, including Iraq and the economy, McHenry said.

“Other than that, it’s still a pretty evenly divided country in terms of votes,” he said.

Other contenders for 2008 race

Among Democrats and Republicans, an unusually large number of candidates are lining up for the 2008 presidential race.

Democrats

Declared candidacy or created exploratory committee:

¢ Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.)
¢ Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.)
¢ Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (Conn.)
¢ Former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.)
¢ Former Sen. Mike Gravel (Alaska)
¢ Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (Ohio)
¢ Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.)
¢ Former Gov. Tom Vilsack (Iowa)

Considering a run:

¢ Retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark
¢ Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.)
¢ Gov. Bill Richardson (N.M.)
¢ Rev. Al Sharpton (N.Y.)

Republicans

Declared candidacy or created exploratory committee:

¢ Sen. Sam Brownback (Kan.)
¢ Former Gov. James Gilmore (Va.)
¢ Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (N.Y.)
¢ Rep. Duncan Hunter (Calif.)
¢ Sen. John McCain (Ariz.)
¢ Rep. Ron Paul (Texas)
¢ Former Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.)
¢ Rep. Tom Trancedo (Colo.)
¢ Former Gov. Tommy Thompson (Wis.)

Considering a run:

¢ Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.)
¢ Sen. Chuck Hagel (Neb.)
¢ Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.)
¢ Former Gov. George Pataki (N.Y.).