Topeka ? Legislators were on a highway to a bipartisan plan for boosting state aid to public schools, but they appear to have exited onto a road that dead ends in a special session this summer.

Leaders’ hopes have faded for passing a plan to phase in an increase of between $500 million and $660 million over three years. Rank-and-file lawmakers have seen projections for a huge budget shortfall in the third year, and the Senate has rejected a bill to expand gambling to help fill the hole.

Backers of a three-year plan haven’t given up completely but acknowledge support for the idea has waned. They also acknowledge that a single-year plan isn’t likely to provide anywhere near the money the Kansas Supreme Court deems necessary.

If legislators don’t satisfy the court with the plan they pass before the regular session ends in May, the court could do what it did last year – tell lawmakers exactly how much to spend and set a deadline. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius would be forced to call a special session.

“My feelings are even stronger that we’re on a path to a special session,” said Sen. John Vratil, R-Leawood, one of the first legislators to predict such a session.

In Kansas, special sessions often are dreaded, and they’re not routine. There have been 21 in the 145 years since statehood, and last year’s was the first in more than 15 years. The last time there were special session sessions in consecutive years was 1933-34.

Up for election

One reason House members want to avoid a special session is they are up for election this year, and the law says they can’t raise campaigns funds from lobbyists and corporations during a legislative session – including special sessions.

Prospects for a special session remain higher than usual as long as the Supreme Court retains jurisdiction over a lawsuit in which justices said lawmakers hadn’t lived up to a constitutional obligation to provide enough money for schools.

The court prodded legislators into increasing spending by $290 million, or more than 10 percent, putting total state aid to Kansas’ 300 school districts at more than $3 billion. But the justices deemed last year’s increase sufficient only for “interim purposes.”

This year, legislative leaders appeared to cruise for weeks toward a relatively peaceful resolution. Republicans, Sebelius and her fellow Democrats all said GOP leaders were keeping rancor from creeping into talks over school finance.

One reason was the Jan. 9 report from the Legislative Division of Post Audit, saying legislators had to spend an additional $400 million to meet judicial and constitutional mandates. The division works for the Legislature.

House, Senate have plans

House leaders drafted a $500 million plan; Senate leaders’ was worth $660 million. Both provided additional money for programs that help at-risk children, particularly those living in a few urban districts, without hurting rural schools.

But absent new revenue, both would cause a budget shortfall next year. If it were ignored, it would grow to more than $600 million the following year. Other existing financial obligations would contribute to the problem, too.

Senate leaders pinned their hopes on a gambling bill, even though nothing has passed their chamber since 1993. Failing Thursday night was a measure allowing casinos in Wyandotte County and far southeast Kansas, as well as slot machines at three dog and horse tracks.

“I’m still on target for a three-year plan, but I don’t believe right now there’s support in the Senate for a three-year plan,” said Education Committee Chairwoman Jean Schodorf, R-Wichita.

Nor does there seem to be much support in the House, where the Select Committee on School Finance jettisoned a firm commitment to large spending increases for a second and third year.

Budget constraints

The problem is that because of budget constraints, any plan is likely to promise only between $165 million and $185 million in new state dollars in the first year. That’s a sizable amount but still far short of what the Post Audit study suggested and what the court has indicated it believes is necessary.

“A one-year plan, I think, puts us in a special session,” said Senate President Steve Morris, R-Hugoton. “If we’re successful at doing two or three, then maybe not.”

GOP anger

There are other complications, including the still-simmering anger that many conservative Republicans feel over what they see as the Supreme Court’s going beyond the bounds of its constitutional authority. They are still pushing constitutional changes to rein in the judiciary.

Recently, Sen. Janis Lee, D-Kensington, suggested conservatives wanted a special session to stoke Kansans’ anger and build momentum for handcuffing the court.

But Sen. Phil Journey, R-Haysville, described such a strategy as too dangerous politically because it could backfire on anyone trying it.

“I just want to handcuff the court now,” Journey said. “Maybe there are people out there who intend us to go down this path, but that’s certainly not what I want to have happen.”

But Journey added, “It does appear to be where we’re headed.”