Washington ? The situation the United States and its allies now face in Afghanistan and Iraq is almost without precedent. In two countries where we used our military might to rout the menacing dictatorial regimes running things, we now find ourselves sponsoring governments with notably shaky holds on popular support.

The leaders of those governments – Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan and Nouri al-Maliki in Iraq – came to power through the influence of American diplomacy and American guns. But, in a historic reversal of fortune, they now hold this country hostage to their decisions and their fate.

In Afghanistan and Iraq, we won military victories that appeared to be decisive enough to allow for the creation of new national governments. In both countries, we provided protection for the conduct of democratic elections and we celebrated their success.

While Karzai was clearly anointed for the job by the American embassy and Maliki was chosen only after the United States had blackballed the original nominee of the dominant Shiite coalition, both men were judged by President Bush to be authentic leaders, committed to building independent, united and peace-loving nations.

It remains to be seen if that confidence is justified. This week, Pamela Constable, The Washington Post’s correspondent in Kabul, reported in a Page 1 story that “many Afghans and some foreign supporters say they are losing faith in … Karzai’s government, which is besieged by an escalating insurgency and endemic corruption and is unable to protect or administer large areas of the country.”

Constable, who knows the country well, quoted a foreign military official in Kabul, speaking anonymously, who said, “The president (Karzai) had a window of opportunity to lead and make difficult decisions, but that window is closing fast. … Karzai is the only alternative for this country. … And if he goes down, we all go down with him.”

I asked Sen. Richard Lugar, the Republican chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, about Constable’s story and he said that he thought the situation in Afghanistan “is problematical” but not necessarily changing for the worse. He said Karzai is “able and articulate,” but “his ability to project his authority” is limited by the meagerness of his forces and the presence of U.S. and NATO troops.

Lugar noted that Karzai had recently complained publicly that the United States and its allies had been laggard in going after the Taliban and had accused Pakistan once again of harboring those terrorists – suggesting that the targets of his criticism perhaps were throwing the blame back on him.

But the disaffection Constable described is rooted in the corruption that has been documented in squandered aid programs, in the continued flourishing of the long-established drug trade and in the revival of the Taliban, which has launched an offensive that has claimed hundreds of lives.

Meantime in Iraq, Maliki, having completed his Cabinet, this week announced his grand plan for national “reconciliation,” only to stumble over the issue of “amnesty.”

Initial reports were that he intended to appeal to the Sunnis, who are the heart of the resistance, by offering pardons even to those who had taken up arms against the Americans – if they would promise to abandon the fight. That was immediately condemned by U.S. politicians of all stripes – including those, such as Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, who favor an early withdrawal of American troops.

When Maliki formally unveiled his proposal, he seemed aware that he was on shaky ground. Amnesty would be offered only to those “who were not involved in crimes, war crimes and crimes against humanity,” he said. “Killers and criminals,” he said, would be “punished with justice.”

That might satisfy the senators, but it raised fresh doubts about the appeal of such an “amnesty” to those who are targeting Americans and making up the rival militias contesting for control of the country.

Lugar said he is skeptical of anyone’s timetable for reducing the U.S. military commitment to Iraq because “there is a palpable sense of danger” hanging over Baghdad. “It is going to be difficult to get the militias to cease and desist,” he said, “as long as the Sunnis feel the insurgents are their ticket to a place at the table” – that is, real influence in the Shiite-dominated government.

Changing that power balance “will take constitutional reform,” Lugar said – and that will not be easy.

A huge American investment of money and lives now rests on two men with a loose grip on power.