Here it is, the first week of fall, and Kyle Taylor already is thinking about the promotions, price cuts and closeouts he’ll be offering over the Thanksgiving weekend to drive holiday sales.

With so much at stake, the owner of Golf USA can’t help but look ahead.

“Consumers are expecting that, and they’ve seen that, especially since Sept. 11, 2001,” Taylor said. “The consumer is programmed to look for those sales, because there are so many during the holiday period.”

Taylor is far from alone.

Retailers throughout Lawrence and across the country are looking for ways to pump up sales during the holiday season.

The National Retail Federation is forecasting that consumers will spend 5 percent more during the holidays than they did a year ago, pumping $435.3 billion into discount and department stores, grocery stores, specialty shops and other such businesses.

Sales will be a major part of the game plan.

“Consumers won’t have to wait until the last minute to get the best deals this year because retailers are expected to be aggressive in their pricing strategies throughout the entire holiday season,” said Tracy Mullin, the federation’s president and chief executive officer.

Kyle Taylor, owner of Golf USA in Lawrence, shows some new golf clubs Thursday to Steve Martin, of Overbrook. Taylor soon will attend a Golf USA convention, during which he will search for products that he can offer at sale prices in November and December.

The federation calls the forecasted spending growth “moderate,” noting that last year’s total had jumped 6.7 percent. Among the reasons for a slower season: high fuel prices, rising energy costs, aftermath from Hurricane Katrina and potential disruptions from Hurricane Rita.

Joe Flannery, president of Weaver’s Department Store in downtown Lawrence, sees energy prices as being a major hurdle to overcome for retailers this year. With consumers faced with less money to spend, he said, they’ll be even more apt to shop for bargains.

And with about 20 percent of most retailers’ revenues generated in December, he said, pricing programs will be especially critical as fall draws to a close.

“We’ll promote throughout December,” said Flannery, who has served on the federation’s board of directors since 1988. “There’s so much competition, you need to promote. People are very astute about what their choices are.”

At Golf USA, Taylor remains hopeful that he’ll be able to move plenty of pairs of golf spikes, boxes of Putting Arc trainers and sets of Ping’s new G5 clubs to stay ahead for the year. His sales already are up more than 5 percent and sees no reason to let up.

Last year he started his holiday sales earlier than ever – the weekend before Thanksgiving – and it paid off.

“It spurred a lot of interest and did real well,” Taylor said. “It was a great weekend. It was bigger than most of our after-Thanksgiving weekends.

“It’s good for the consumer and, as long as we’re holding our margins up and increasing our sales, it’s good for us, too.”