It’s not if, but when, according to a national biosecurity expert who Wednesday told officials here that a pandemic flu will sweep the U.S., killing hundreds in Douglas County and hospitalizing thousands.

The pandemic is “coming, we just don’t know how soon,” said Onora Lien, an analyst with the Center for Biosecurity in Baltimore. “It could be tomorrow. It could be two or three years from now.”

Meeting at Lawrence Memorial Hospital with about 60 Lawrence, Douglas County and Kansas University officials, Lien warned that the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention projections show a pandemic would kill hundreds of thousands of Americans, including between 250 to 500 in Douglas County; 11,000 residents here will require hospitalization, according to the forecasts.

These calculations, she said, are based on previous pandemics and could be conservative.

“Huge numbers of people could die, as many as one in four,” she said. “It’s frightening.”

Lien urged the group to begin alerting the public to the realities of the pandemic flu:

• 6News video: Officials urged to warn public of flu danger
• Official wants Lawrence disaster-ready (09-03-05)
• Study indicates rural areas feel unprepared for terrorist attack (03-22-05)
• How to Lead during Bioattacks with the Public’s Trust and Help: A manual for Mayors, Governors and Top Health Officials

¢ That it’s not to be confused with the runny-nose, cold-like flu viruses that accompany winter. Instead, pandemic flu will be “unlike anything we’ve ever seen before,” she said.

¢ Vaccines likely will take six to nine months to develop and distribute and will not be available at the onset. There will be rationing.

¢ This is not alarmist talk. In the 20th century, three flu pandemics – Spanish Flu of 1918, Asian Flu of 1957, Honk Kong Flu 1968 – have killed millions of people.

Since 2003, avian flu has killed at least 64 people. Researchers fear the strain will eventually mutate or combine with another strain, making it more contagious.

¢ Early on, the primary defense will be to isolate those who become ill.

Lien praised Lawrence-Douglas County Health Department’s plans to host a Dec. 1 town hall meeting on issues surrounding pandemic flu.

“You are so ahead of the curve,” she said, directing her comment toward health department administrator Kay Kent.

“It’s very important that there be a public discussion on this,” Kent said.

The discussion, Lien said, should address KU’s and the Lawrence school district’s response to the possibility of needing to keep hundreds or thousands of students isolated, or businesses’ response to one-third of the work force being too ill to work.

Also, there should be a plan for sharing information with the public in ways that will be seen as honest, reliable and trustworthy, Lien said.

She stressed the importance of public officials being forthcoming, noting that withholding information ensures dissension.

“Trust the public,” she said. “Work with the media to let people know what’s going on.”

Too many times, she said, public officials scoff at crisis-spawned rumors when, actually, they are indications of distrust and should be quickly addressed.

Lien said she was worried that concerns over the pandemic have become “politicized” in recent months, stalling the nation’s preparations.

“This isn’t about politics, it’s about science,” she said.

Lawrence City Manager Mike Wildgen coordinated Lien’s presentation.

“It looks like we have a lot of planning to do,” Wildgen said. “We need to be as prepared as we can be.”

The Center for Biosecurity is an independent, nonprofit organization of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, with offices in Baltimore. It works to affect policy and practice in ways that lessen the illness, death, and civil disruption that would follow large-scale epidemics.