Revenue forecast improves, but little change seen in budget

? Fiscal forecasters are predicting that the state will collect about $40 million more in general revenues through mid-2005 than previously expected, but the new estimate has done little to brighten the budget picture.

The annual spring revenue forecast, issued Tuesday, was the first in six years to be more optimistic than the forecast issued the previous November, said Alan Conroy, director of the Legislative Research Department and a member of the forecasting group.

Still, key legislators quickly noted that they already faced modifying a $10.2 billion state budget signed Monday by Sebelius, to account for revised estimates for the costs of social services, teacher pensions and existing aid to school districts.

The result, they said, is that while the new forecast represents good news, it won’t allow the state to expand programs or make social services more generous during the fiscal year beginning July 1.

Gov. Kathleen Sebelius said the state was fortunate “to be remaining steady.”

“We are in a very tight budget situation and there is simply no money for additional expenditures,” Sebelius said in a statement.

Work on budget cleanup bills was to start Wednesday in the House Appropriations Committee and Thursday in the Senate Ways and Means Committee, with legislators returning April 28 from a long recess to conclude the year’s business.

Senate committee Chairman Steve Morris, R-Hugoton, said the the new estimate is good news because of the additional $40 million, but added, “There are a lot of items eating that up.”

The forecasting group predicted general revenue in the current fiscal year, which ends June 30, will total $16.7 million more than the $4.45 billion previously expected.

For the new fiscal year, the state will collect $23.2 million more than the $4.54 billion estimated in November, the forecasting group said.

The forecasting group is made up of legislative researchers, three university economists, top Department of Revenue officials and members of Sebelius’ budget staff.

“The bottom line is there is some good news, no matter how slight,” Conroy said.

State Budget Director Duane Goossen said the new estimate reflects forecasters’ continued expectation of modest growth in the Kansas economy in 2004 and 2005.

“From November to now, the picture has not changed,” he said.

A budget cleanup bill is necessary because state officials have in recent weeks revised estimates for how much some programs will cost the state through mid-2005.

For example, education officials said the cost of teacher pensions and existing aid to school districts will be $19.6 million higher than previously thought, requiring the state to boost its $2.6 billion in education funding just to keep schools’ programs at existing levels.

Also, state officials now expect medical services for the needy, foster care and nursing home services for the elderly to cost $2.8 million more than previously estimated.

Finally, state officials believe Kansas will receive $7.5 million less than previously thought through mid-2005 from a 1998 settlement of lawsuits by states against major tobacco companies. Those funds aren’t considered general revenues but they support ongoing children’s programs, and lawmakers could be forced to use general revenues to make up for the shortfall.