photo by: City of Lawrence/MG2

The entrance of a proposed Lawrence Costco store is shown in this rendering.

Costco has filed for a nearly $22 million building permit at Lawrence City Hall, the latest sign that its plans to build a store near Rock Chalk Park in northwest Lawrence remain on track.

The building permit, which was filed with the city one week ago, also may get us closer to a starter’s gun-type of moment for the vacant commercial property near Sixth Street and George Williams Way that surrounds the site of the proposed Costco store.

A local commercial real estate expert told me that a whole host of retailers, restaurants and other such commercial businesses probably will get very aggressive in trying to secure spots next to the Costco store once it becomes clear that Costco’s plans have reached a point of no return.

“I think the minute they firmly announce they are coming or they break ground and demonstrate that they are moving dirt and are headed that direction, I think the gates open,” Allison Vance Moore, senior vice president, for Lawrence’s Colliers commercial real estate office, told me.

Moore said she was speaking in general terms rather than with knowledge of any specific deals, but she said it is clear that there will be a long list of businesses interested in locating next to Costco. That’s because the discount wholesale club will bring a tremendous amount of traffic to the shopping center it will anchor. Moore said there is no doubt that the store will routinely draw shoppers from as far west as Manhattan, as the Lawrence store will be Costco’s most western Kansas store along the I-70 corridor.

“There is probably not a provider that doesn’t want to be near them,” Moore said, when asked of what type of commercial businesses are most likely to locate next to Costco. “It is a long and deep list.”

You already are starting to see signs of some of that interest. The Journal-World reported last week that it was disclosed at a recent Lawrence-Douglas County Planning Commission meeting that the grocery chain Aldi is looking at building a grocery store near the northeast corner of Sixth Street and George Williams Way, which would put it roughly across the street from the Costco.

That makes sense, as Aldi focuses on providing discounted grocery products. Costco’s claim to fame is that it sells many products below traditional retail prices, so it is natural that other retailers with a similar strategy would want to be nearby.

photo by: City of Lawrence/MG2

A proposed Costco for northwest Lawrence is shown in this rendering. This is a view from Mercato Drive.

But I wondered if there are any lists out there that show what businesses most often locate next to Costco, as guessing what businesses might follow Costco to town is becoming a popular pastime. I didn’t find any straightforward list of that nature. But I did find interesting data about Costo “cross visitation.” That’s data that shows what other businesses Costco customers often visit. While that doesn’t necessarily mean the business is located next door, it does provide a pretty good list of businesses that would have a strong interest in being near the retailer.

The data — which came from the business intelligence firm Unacast — makes Aldi’s interest even less surprising. Grocery stores show up near the top of the cross visitation lists for nearly every community in which Costco is located. While Costco sells lots of groceries, that data indicates Costco shoppers don’t do all of their grocery shopping at the warehouse club. Thus, grocers who are located nearby a Costco might have a leg up in getting some of that business.

At the very top of the cross visitation list was Walmart. Lots of Costco shoppers also shop at Walmart, it seems. Walmart already has a location relatively close to the proposed Costco site. The Walmart at Sixth Street and Congressional Drive is about two miles to the east. That Walmart, though, is on the smaller side. Will the addition of Costco cause Walmart to think about expanding its westside Walmart?

Shockingly, Walmart has not shared its thinking with me, but it is the type of thing to be on the look out for. Another retailer that is near the top of the list is Target. It also attracts a large number of Costco shoppers. Target’s lone Lawrence store is on south Iowa Street, and it is a large one. To my untrained eye, it seems like a stretch that Target would open a second store in Lawrence, and it also seems unlikely that it would abandon its south Iowa Street location, but again, it is worth noting.

The more interesting category that shows up on the cross visitation list is home improvement retailers. Home Depot shows up on the list in a whole of of communities. The retailer’s lone Lawrence location — also in south Lawrence — is a bit smaller than average for a Home Depot. Would it be tempting for Home Depot to have a bigger store next to Costco? Again, maybe a stretch.

But another name that shows up on the list is Lowe’s. As you may know, Lowe’s doesn’t have a store in Lawrence, but it is not for a lack of trying. The company in 2010 tried to win approval to build a store near Sixth Street and Folks Road, but abandoned plans after facing neighborhood opposition.

City leaders at the time tried to get Lowe’s to consider a site near Sixth Street and the South Lawrence Trafficway, which is the area where Costco now plans to locate. The retailer wasn’t interested in the site then, but what about now? One thing is for certain, the site that is slated to house Costco is surrounded by vacant land that already has the necessary zoning approvals to accommodate big box retail.

The development — called Mercato — has about a dozen other lots that are actively being marketed for commercial development. There are a couple of lots about 10 acres in size, and several others in the 5 to 7 acre range. Some of those lots likely could be easily combined, thus meaning there is plenty of room for one or two other big retailers in the center.

Does the addition of Costco cause Lowe’s to take another look at Lawrence?

“I would presume that answer would be yes, but that is no fact,” Moore said. “That’s just speculation on my part.”

A site plan document shows the proposed location of a Costco store in northwest Lawrence.

The Mercato development also has multiple smaller lots available that likely are going to be attractive to restaurants. On that front, there was one restaurant that showed up on cross visitation list in nearly every market in which Costco operates. Chick-fil-A. Not counting its small presence on the KU campus, Chick-fil-A has only one restaurant in Lawrence, and it is located on south Iowa Street. If I had to make one bet on what will come to town as a result of Costco, I would bet on an additional Chick-fil-A restaurant.

The restaurant that I know is one the minds of many, however, is Braum’s. As we’ve reported for several years, Braum’s bought a lot in the Mercato development, but it has not ever started construction there. The hamburger and ice cream chain told me about a year ago that Lawrence wasn’t on its list of 2026 construction projects. However, that was before Costco announced its plans. I’ve got a message into a Braum’s official to see if anything has changed on that front. I’ll, of course, pass along any updates.

As for the filing of the building permit for Costco, the permit application lists the size of the store at 154,567 square feet, and says construction costs will total $21.8 million. The building permit fee owed to the city is just more than $8,000.

The project is a big one for the city’s building permit staff to review and approve, so it will take many weeks to get through that process. Once a building permit is issued, various online reports have said that Costco has a highly-efficient building system that allows stores to go from construction to opening in about 110 days.

photo by: City of Lawrence/MG2

A proposed Lawrence Costco and its gas station is shown in this rendering.