photo by: AdobeStock

A Costco store is shown in this AdobeStock photo

I have a standing policy about rumors regarding Costco coming to Lawrence: I’ll believe them when my U-Haul is backed up to the Lawrence store to load the dozens of Costco cakes. (That would be an inevitability because my household loves Costco cake.)

Over the last 15 years or so, I’ve just heard too many unfounded rumors from shoppers who travelled to one of the KC metro Costco stores and heard from an employee there that Lawrence was next on the store’s build list. Multiple times per year that would happen.

Well, there is a new set of Costco rumors running around town. I’m not saying I have the U-Haul reserved, but there are signs to take this one more seriously. The rumors this time haven’t been coming from shoppers making their way back from a KC store. Instead, they’ve come from people more connected to City Hall and the building community. Both of those groups are in a better position to know.

I have heard that Costco officials have indeed met with City Hall officials to get details about the development process. A development filing is supposed to be imminent, although as of Thursday, a city official in the planning office told me that no application from Costco had been received.

The rumor has it that Costco even has the particular piece of property near Sixth Street and the SLT in west Lawrence under contract. I reached out to a member of the Schwada family, which is part of the partnership that owns the property, for any details, but haven’t heard back. That is indicative of nothing other than a day that ends in ‘y,’ as the Schwadas always have been cautious with such announcements.

By and far, the west Lawrence development at the northeast corner of Sixth Street and the SLT has been the most popular site of any Costco rumor over the years. The development, known as Mercato, is just south of Rock Chalk Park, and is one of the few places in town that is already zoned for big box retail development.

A Costco would be among the biggest of the boxes. If you aren’t familiar with Costco, you must not have buttercream icing in your veins. Costco is a special type of retailer known as a “membership warehouse club.” Wal-mart’s Sam’s Club is the other big player in that industry, and the question of which one is better could fuel quite the food fight among fans. It would be fought with five-gallon buckets of ketchup and pallets of eggs because both are known for selling items in larger-than-normal quantities but also lower-than-average prices.

Landing a Costco in the Mercato development would be huge in a different way. Rock Chalk Park and the Mercato development were both conceived at the same time. The idea always involved a host of retailers, restaurants and hotels developing on the property next to the sports complex, serving both locals and visitors to town.

Rock Chalk Park is now more than 10 years old, and has become a regular spot for weekend youth tournaments at its indoor recreation center. But the retail development hasn’t happened at all. One hotel has located on the property, while the biggest development has been the construction of LMH Health’s west Lawrence outpatient hospital.

As we have reported many times, the hamburger and ice cream chain Braum’s has bought a site at Mercato, but has not started construction. Truity Credit Union also has bought a site at the development. While construction hasn’t started, it does now have a coming soon sign on the property.

If Costco becomes a reality, there likely would be a lot more coming soon signs growing out of the Mercato dirt. Costco is the definition of an anchor retailer that would attract multiple other businesses that want to take advantage of the customer traffic created by Costco.

Below is a map that the commercial real estate firm that markets Mercato — Lane4 — uses to advertise the development. That big 14-acre site in the middle of the property presumably would be the Costco location. For those of you who don’t regularly get out that way, the streets shown on the southern portion of the map are already constructed. Given that the zoning also is in place, development could happen at a fairly rapid pace, if Costco gives the green light.

photo by: Lane4

A map shows the Mercato commercial development in west Lawrence.

The same would be true for the other lots closest to Sixth Street. There are at least 11 other lots that already have the streets in place to start construction. Some of those lots are among the biggest commercial lots available in the city, meaning that once one big box retailer comes, there could be others. There’s room, anyway, for that.

Is there demand, though? That has been the biggest question about Costco coming to Lawrence over the years. Many people have argued the city is just too small. Beyond vanilla and chocolate, I’m no Costco expert. But it was easy enough to find the locations where Costco will soon be opening stores.

There are seven U.S. locations slated to open soon, according to the company’s website. Indeed, nearly all of them are larger than Lawrence, including stores located in the metro areas of Orlando, Dallas, Charlotte, and Las Vegas. But not all locations were much larger. The company is opening next month a store in Muskegon County, Mich., which with a population of about 175,000 people is only marginally larger than Douglas County.

Plus, it is worth noting that Topeka does not have a Costco location. A far west Lawrence location may well be a strong draw for Topeka shoppers, which would be a new way for Lawrence to capture some sales tax dollars from our neighbors.

If Costco does end up locating in Lawrence, it will be the retailer’s fourth store in Kansas, joining locations in Lenexa, Overland Park and Wichita.

Obviously, I’ll provide an update if Costco does end up filing a development plan with City Hall.