photo by: Courtesy: KU Alumni Association/Dan Storey

KU Vaccine Analytics & Formulation Center staff member Kaushal Jerajani, graduate research assistant, works in the lab to formulate and analyze vaccine candidates in this 2021 file photo.

Hiring freezes are a trend at major U.S. research universities, but KU hasn’t yet implemented one, a spokeswoman with the university told the Journal-World this week.

But KU is sharing in the same worry that has led schools including Stanford, MIT and Northwestern to recently implement hiring freezes: A fear that Trump administration changes to federal research funding will blow a hole in university budgets.

In the case of KU, leaders are now estimating the potential changes will cost the university $30 million to $40 million per year.

Spokeswoman Erinn Barcomb-Peterson provided the $30 million to $40 million estimate when the Journal-World recently asked about expected impacts related to potential changes in how research funds from the National Institutes of Health can be used by universities.

At issue is a Trump administration directive that would limit how universities can use NIH funding to pay certain overhead expenses, such as maintenance of research labs, utility bills, and other administrative costs related to research activities.

The Trump administration is seeking to implement a new rule that would prohibit universities from spending more than 15% of NIH grant funds on such administrative or overhead expenses. Universities may well continue to receive NIH grant funds for research, but if they aren’t able to cut their administrative expenses, they likely would have to pull money out of other parts of their budgets to keep the research enterprises operating.

That’s why some universities have announced across-the-board hiring freezes, which impact departments that seemingly have little to do with NIH-funded projects. Simply put, universities may have to dramatically re-order their budgets if the Trump changes are implemented. That’s why every department of universities could be at risk, if the new spending cap becomes the norm.

The new NIH policy, which the agency attempted to implement in early February, is on hold after several entities filed lawsuits challenging the change. Among the plaintiffs is the Association of American Universities, of which KU is a member, and KU Chancellor Douglas Girod is the current vice chair of the AAU board of directors. A judge has temporarily halted NIH from implementing the change until parties in the lawsuit have a chance to further argue the case.

But whether the NIH ultimately will be blocked from making the policy change is uncertain. That’s why some universities are acting now to shore up finances by halting hiring. In addition to Stanford, MIT and Northwestern, there have been media reports that North Carolina State, Cornell, Case Western Reserve and the University of Louisville, among others, recently implemented hiring freezes.

When asked whether KU had cut back on any hiring as a result of the pending changes, Barcomb-Peterson said, as the Journal-World has reported, that a handful of federally funded projects have been terminated. KU, though, hasn’t announced specific layoff totals associated with those project terminations, and hasn’t yet released which programs have ended.

“We are working with these teams to manage impacts on work and personnel,” Barcomb-Peterson said via email.

Overall, though, KU continues to advertise and interview for a variety of open jobs on the Lawrence campus. Any hiring freeze could have major implications for the Lawrence economy. KU is the largest employer in Lawrence, with a mix of about 9,900 full and part-time employees on the Lawrence campus.

Layoffs that came as a result of a $30 million to $40 million budget adjustment would have an even larger impact on the Lawrence economy. But if such a budget shock does occur, it wouldn’t all be centered on the Lawrence campus. The KU Medical Center in Kansas City, Kan. receives the bulk of KU’s NIH funding in any given year. The $30 million to $40 million estimate includes the impact to all KU campuses, including the Medical Center.

However, it is unclear what proportion of cuts KU would make at the Medical Center versus the Lawrence campus to adjust to a $40 million budget problem. Universities likely will be hesitant to make cuts that would make it more difficult for the schools to receive federal research dollars. Federal research funding is one of the largest revenue streams for many universities. KU in fiscal year 2024 received $360 million in research grants, with about $245 million of it coming from federal agencies. If KU were to take actions that led to a reduction in those grants, KU likely would have even larger changes to make to its operations and finances.

It also is possible that the $30 million to $40 million estimate could be higher than the actual impact. Last month The New York Times conducted an analysis of past NIH funding awards and estimated how much of a budget impact schools would face under the Trump administration changes. The Times estimated an $18 million impact for KU and the Medical Center combined.

However, those estimates are based on past awards, while future awards that would be impacted by the changes might be much different. KU is in a growth mode with NIH funding, as the Medical Center’s designation as a Comprehensive Cancer Center has opened up multiple new NIH grant opportunities for the university. In fiscal year 2024, KU and the Medical Center received $150 million in health-related federal research grants, up from $134 million a year earlier.