photo by: Chad Lawhorn/Journal-World

Construction crews pour the foundation for a new single-family home in the Beth's Ranch neighborhood near Sixth Street and George Williams Way on July 7, 2025.

It is like a limbo game with hammer and nails.

Halfway through the year, Lawrence’s single-family housing market may be amazing some onlookers with how low it can go. After setting a record low for new single-family housing starts in 2024, area builders are on pace to break that record this year.

Actually, they are on pace to smash the record.

Through June, the City of Lawrence has issued 19 single-family building permits. That’s down nearly 40% from the 31 permits the city had issued during the same time period a year ago.

How low can it go? (I ask using my best roller rink DJ voice, which also sounds 100 years old with words like “roller rink.”) Well, we have another six months to find out if the city indeed will set another all-time low in single-family building starts. But here is one noteworthy fact at the halfway point: The number of single-family homes under construction in the rural, unincorporated parts of Douglas County is now double the number of single-family homes under construction in Lawrence.

Mind you, those numbers don’t count single-family homes that are under construction inside Douglas County communities like Baldwin City or Eudora. Instead, I’m just talking about homes being built on vacant pasture land or other rural pieces of property. Through June, the Douglas County Zoning and Codes department has issued 38 rural single-family building permits compared to the 19 such permits issued inside the Lawrence city limits.

In fact, during two months — May and June — Douglas County officials issued more single-family building permits than Lawrence has issued for the entire year. The total is 20 to 19, if you are keeping score.

photo by: Chad Lawhorn/Journal-World

A single-family home under construction along Cedar Grove Way in west Lawrence is shown on July 7, 2025.

Some in the local building industry are skeptical about Lawrence’s prospects for bouncing back in the second half of the year.

“It is not going to get any better,” Roger Johnson, a Lawrence-based land developer, told me this week. “I think consumer confidence is way, way down. There is just too much turmoil and interest rates are too high.”

However, I wouldn’t necessarily assume that Lawrence is going to set another record low this year. There are a couple of single-family housing projects that are underway in town, but aren’t yet far enough along to be producing many building permits.

A development put together by Johnson is one of the largest. Roads and utilities have been installed for the Beth’s Ranch neighborhood at the southeast corner of George Williams Way and Sixth Street. Johnson has been working for years to redevelop that former horse ranch property into a housing development. There currently are three single-family homes under construction in that neighborhood. Johnson thinks there could be 20 to 25 structures underway by the end of the year, although some of those likely will be duplexes rather than single-family homes. When the neighborhood is completed, there will be 24 single-family homes and 82 townhomes.

Construction work also is advancing on a new housing development in southeast Lawrence. Excavation work for roads, sidewalks and utilities is underway just east of O’Connell Road near the 28th Street intersection. My understanding is that development also will have a mix of duplex and single-family homes, and largely will be built by Lawrence-based Salb Construction. I’ve got a call into a representative there to learn more about the timing of that project.

photo by: Chad Lawhorn/Journal-World

Excavation work, shown on July 7, 2025, is underway on a new housing development east of O’Connell Road and 28th Street in eastern Lawrence.

So, another record low may or may not be in the cards this year. Either way, the year probably should come with an asterisk. That’s because while single-family homes are on a record-low pace thus far, duplex construction has seen an increase. The city has issued 16 permits for duplexes, which have two living units per building. Last year at this time, the city hadn’t issued any duplex permits, according to the city’s online database.

In other words, if you combine single-family and duplex totals, Lawrence has a little more home construction underway than it did a year ago.

Regardless, the city is still in the midst of a major housing slump, no matter how you measure the numbers. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Lawrence constructed more than 300 single-family homes per year for 11 consecutive years and generally was considered one of the busier housing markets in the state.

More broadly — going back to 1956 when the city began keeping more detailed housing records — there have only been four years when Lawrence has not built at least 100 single-family homes. Three of the four have been recent — 2022, 2023, 2024. The midyear totals for 2025 suggest this year will be the fourth straight year the city doesn’t crack the 100-home mark.

photo by: Chad Lawhorn/Journal-World

Construction material is shown at a job site in the Fairfield Farms subdivision southeast of 23rd Street and O’Connell Road on July 8, 2025.

The slowdown in building comes as housing prices have been increasing in Lawrence, and as local leaders have labeled housing affordability one of the community’s biggest challenges.

Building slowdowns have occurred in other markets too, but there are signs that some neighboring communities are bouncing back at a faster rate than Lawrence. The Home Builders Association of Greater Kansas City tracks single-family housing starts for cities and counties throughout the KC metro area. It has released figures through May that show housing starts are down from recent highs in 2022, but currently are in the midst of a two-year rebound.

Single-family housing starts in the KC metro grew by 14% in 2024, and through May of this year are up about 1.5% from the same period a year ago.

I think the numbers will show some communities closer to Lawrence also are seeing much higher growth in new homes. I’m expecting to soon receive an update on multiple housing projects that are underway in Baldwin City, and will report back on what that southern Douglas County community is experiencing with new construction.

photo by: Chad Lawhorn/Journal-World

A single-family home under construction along Cedar Grove Way in west Lawrence is shown on July 7, 2025.