photo by: Shawn Valverde/Special to the Journal-World

Downtown Lawrence, looking north, is pictured in this aerial photo from September 2023. South Park is at the bottom of the photo. The Judicial and Law Enforcement Center is the large beige building at right.

Many of you are probably familiar with the television program “MythBusters,” where a group of somewhat nerdy science aficionados disprove many myths — often by blowing something up.

Well, the folks at the U.S. Census Bureau can do the same thing, and usually use a lot less dynamite in the process.

New data from one of the Census Bureau’s most comprehensive reports — its five-year American Community Survey averages — was recently released, and it indeed puts a dent in a few Lawrence myths.

For example, maybe you have heard Lawrence has the highest housing prices in the state. No.

Well, but it has the lowest wages. No.

But, when you combine our relatively high home prices and our relatively low wages, we have some of the most financially stressed homeowners in the state. Again, no — and for an extra jaw-dropping effect, the numbers show that is even less true than it was five years ago.

However, every good myth has a kernel of truth, and the latest numbers do provide some validation. There’s a world of difference between being a homeowner and a renter in Lawrence. Renters in the city are some of the most financially stressed in the state, but even that group has shown improvement over the last five years.

So, let’s take a look at some key findings from the latest census numbers, which are for the 2023 edition of the five-year American Community Survey program. I’ve gathered numbers for Lawrence and five other communities that also are among the state’s largest and most urban in nature. I didn’t want the comparison to become dominated by Johnson County — which is unlike any other county in Kansas in many ways — so I limited the list to just one JoCo city. I chose Olathe, in part, because it is the closest of the large Johnson County cities.

Housing

This seems like a good place to start because there is a lot of conversation underway about housing in Lawrence. The Census Bureau measures what percentage of homeowners are paying more than 35% of their income on housing expenses. That 35% threshold is generally considered the point where people are at or near financial crisis. Here’s a look at the percentage of homeowners — those who still have a mortgage — who are paying more than 35% of their monthly income on housing expenses.

• Olathe: 12.6%

• Lawrence: 14.5%

• Manhattan: 15.3%

• Wichita: 15.6%

• Topeka: 15.6%

• Kansas City, Kan.: 23.2%

As you can see, Lawrence is in the second-best situation on the list, trailing only the Johnson County community. What’s also notable is how things have changed over the last five years. The 2018 number from the Census Bureau showed 14.7% of Lawrence homeowners above the stress level. In other words, basically unchanged. By that measure — and it is just one measure — we don’t have more homeowners in crisis. Several other communities can’t say the same. KCK saw its crisis number grow by more than 2 percentage points. Manhattan’s grew by more than 1.5 percentage points. Olathe, while still very low, saw its number grow by 1 percentage point. Only Wichita performed better than Lawrence. Wichita saw its number drop by almost a full percentage point.

The Census Bureau also does the same crisis calculation for renters. Lawrence renters aren’t in as good of a spot as Lawrence homeowners.

• Olathe: 33.9%

• Wichita: 35.6%

• Topeka: 36.1%

• Kansas City: 39.7%

• Lawrence: 42.4%

• Manhattan: 44.6%

It is noteworthy, however, that even renters have seen an improvement over the last five years. In 2018, 45.3% of Lawrence renters were at or near that crisis point. Lawrence had the highest percentage of any community on the list. In 2023, not only had the number fallen, but Lawrence had fallen below Manhattan. For what it is worth, the majority of communities on the list saw its crisis percentage fall over the last five years. Olathe and Manhattan were the exceptions. Both went up a fraction of a percentage point.

It stands out that Lawrence and Manhattan — the two largest college communities in the state — topped the list. This measurement probably isn’t a great one for college communities. Seemingly, a college community has a certain percentage of renters who have little to no income but aren’t in any real crisis because parents are paying the rent bill. Thus, you could argue that the Lawrence and Manhattan numbers are probably inflated some, but it is difficult to say by how much.

I would argue that KCK has the worst housing affordability problem of any community on the list, based on these numbers. That’s true both from a homeowner and a rental standpoint. That may surprise some people because KCK certainly doesn’t have the highest housing prices. However, housing affordability is about many factors, including how quickly housing prices are increasing.

Here’s a look at the median home value in each community, plus how much that home value has increased since 2018.

• Olathe: $340,600, up 52.1%

• Lawrence: $269,500, up 43.3%

• Manhattan: $243,700, up 21.6%

• Wichita: $179,500, up 39.6%

• Kansas City: $147,100, up 60.6%

• Topeka: $130,600, up 27.3%

These numbers give you an idea why KCK may have it worse than Lawrence on the affordability front. Home values are soaring there in ways they aren’t in Lawrence. Now, there are better sources for home values than the Census Bureau. I do think the Census Bureau underestimates home values across the board. But one of the better sources for home values is the state’s Division of Property Valuation, which gets numbers directly from county appraisers. A quick check of that database largely supports what the Census Bureau is saying. In 2023, Wyandotte County — home to KCK — had median home values increase by 22%, one of the largest increases in the state. All of the rest of the home counties on this list were in the mid-tier range of 10% to 15% increases.

Before we move on to another topic, here are a couple of other numbers related to housing. First is the average monthly costs for a homeowner, which includes mortgage, taxes, utilities and other such expenses.

• Olathe: $2,098

• Lawrence: $1,772

• Manhattan: $1,770

• Kansas City: $1,462

• Wichita: $1,459

• Topeka: $1,250

Here is a look at the average residential rent rates in each community.

• Olathe: $1,314

• Kansas City: $1,073

• Lawrence: $1,054

• Manhattan: $1,019

• Wichita: $960

• Topeka: $947

Here’a look at the percentage of residents who are renters.

• Manhattan: 58.7%

• Lawrence: 57.1%

• Wichita: 46.1%

• Topeka: 40.8%

• Kansas City: 39.6%

• Olathe: 26.3%

Incomes

Those numbers provide pretty good evidence that housing affordability isn’t just about the price of housing. Olathe, after all, has the highest rent rates and highest mortgages on the list, but has the lowest percentage of people in housing crisis.

The reason, of course, is income. Olathe has the top incomes, by far. There’s sometimes a belief that Lawrence ranks near the bottom of that income list. Not so. Lawrence is more in the middle of the pack when it comes to median household incomes.

• Olathe: $112,232

• Wichita: $63,072

• Lawrence: $62,838

• Kansas City: $59,183

• Manhattan: $58,441

• Topeka: $55,902

Lawrence’s student population probably depresses those numbers some. There are a fair number of students living in Lawrence who have little income, and thus bring the average down. That’s why I like to look at a census statistic that shows the average wage for a full-time, year-round worker, broken down by male and female workers. Lawrence’s standing improves when you look at that list.

• Olathe: male, $80,360; female, $60,674

• Lawrence: $59,042; $48,647

• Wichita: $54,628; $43,607

• Topeka: $53,557; $46,585

• Manhattan: $52,999; $47,242

• Kansas City: $50,252; $43,188

If you are looking for red flags, though, here is a potential one: Wage growth. Lawrence hasn’t ranked very high on that list over the last five years. Here are the five-year growth numbers for both male and female full-time workers.

• Olathe: male, up 26.7%; female, up 33.4%

• Kansas City: up 25.7%; up 27.5%

• Manhattan: up 25.1%; up 25.8%

• Topeka: up 22.5%; up 25.1%

• Lawrence: up 16.9%; up 22.5%

• Wichita: up 13%; up 18.7%

If you are scoring along at home, inflation was about 22% from the end of 2018 to the end of 2023. So, Lawrence and Wichita both had lots of full-time workers who failed to keep up with inflation, with some experiencing large deficits.

Population

The No. 1 myth about Lawrence that actually isn’t a myth is that we have a lot of highly educated people in the city. Here’s a look at the percentage of residents with a bachelor’s degree or higher.

• Lawrence: 55.1%

• Manhattan: 52.1%

• Olathe: 49.4%

• Wichita: 30.9%

• Topeka: 29.1%

• Kansas City: 20.2%

You could probably have an interesting discussion if you compare those education numbers with the wage numbers for full-time workers above. There is a debate in the country currently about the value of higher education. Figuring out why those two lists aren’t better aligned could be useful in understanding the higher education and workforce dynamics.

Another truism about Lawrence is that we are young. Here’s a look at the median age.

• Manhattan: 25.2 years

• Lawrence: 29.2

• Kansas City: 34

• Wichita: 35.7

• Olathe: 36.6

• Topeka: 38.2

While we are young, we aren’t a place that has a lot of children. This list shows our average household size and the percentage of our population that is younger than 18 years old.

• Lawrence: 2.14 people per household (16.5% below 18)

• Manhattan: 2.18 (14.8%)

• Topeka: 2.23 (22.4%)

• Wichita: 2.47 (24.5%)

• Kansas City: 2.7 (27.7%)

• Olathe: 2.73 (26.8%)

Also, our percentage of people who are older than 65 isn’t that large.

• Topeka: 18%

• Wichita: 15.4%

• Olathe: 13.2%

• Kansas City: 13%

• Lawrence: 12.3%

• Manhattan: 10%

Lawrence talks about diversity frequently, but usually it isn’t about race. Lawrence isn’t among the most racially diverse cities in the state. Here’s a look at the percentage of the population that is white.

• Manhattan: 78.8%

• Olathe: 78.6%

• Lawrence: 76.5%

• Topeka: 71%

• Wichita: 66.6%

• Kansas City: 44%

Every community on the list also had more than 80% of its population born in the U.S. Lawrence was at 91.3%, trailing only Topeka at 93.6%. But the breakdown on how many residents were born in Kansas is a little more interesting.

• Topeka: 68.6%

• Wichita: 62.2%

• Kansas City: 51.9%

• Manhattan: 51.4%

• Lawrence: 50.2%

• Olathe: 46.8%

Lastly, if you are looking for a discussion-starter, this might be a good one: Why hasn’t Lawrence attracted more Hispanic residents? As someone who covers higher education, I can tell you the Kansas Board of Regents often discusses how Kansas universities can do better in attracting Hispanic students. They would tell you that the success rate thus far hasn’t been very good. It shows in the Lawrence and Manhattan numbers. That could be important over the long term, given that Hispanics are the fastest-growing segment of the U.S. population. Here’s a look at the percentage of the population that is Hispanic.

• Kansas City: 35%

• Wichita: 18.4%

• Topeka: 16.9%

• Olathe: 12.5%

• Manhattan: 9.3%

• Lawrence: 7.8%