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An AdobeStock image shows models of homes.

Lawrence is assured of having its second consecutive year of increasing home sales, and this year may come with the bonus of moderating home prices as well.

But whether the Lawrence real estate market enters 2026 with good tidings is still an open question, as November’s totals marked the third consecutive month of declining home sales.

The recently released Lawrence Board of Realtors housing report shows that Lawrence home sales through November totaled 932 sales. That’s already more than the 918 sales that took place in Lawrence for all of 2024. So, there is no mystery whether Lawrence will post its second consecutive year of home sales growth. It will, with the only question being how much growth?

Through November, home sales are up 6.2% for the year, which is above the 4.7% growth rate that the Lawrence market posted in 2024. The numbers continue a bounce back from two historically bad years that the Lawrence market went through in 2023 and 2022. Home sales in those years fell by 21% and 13%, respectively.

The percentage that may catch more eyes, however, is on the price front. The median selling price of Lawrence homes through November is up just 1.7%. If the market finishes 2025 at that level, it would be a far slower rate of home price inflation than what Lawrence has experienced in recent years. In both 2024 and 2023, median selling prices rose by a little more than 4%, and that was considered mild compared to what Lawrence had seen in the preceding years. In 2022, median selling prices soared 10%, in 2021 they jumped 11.5% and in 2020 they rose 11%.

I can’t currently tell you when Lawrence last saw median selling prices increase at such a small rate. I have easy access to local home sale data dating back to 2018, and there is not a year where selling prices increased anywhere close to the current 1.7% rate. Since 2018, Lawrence selling prices have increased by at least 4% every year.

Add it all up and it looks like Lawrence has hit the sweet spot in 2025 — more homes were sold, but home prices increased by less than the norm.

That indeed may end up being the story of 2025, but a closer look at the numbers raise questions about what’s in store for 2026. The number of home sales in November were down 9% from the number of home sales made in November 2024. That’s the third consecutive month that home sales have fallen from the same month in the previous year. October sales were down nearly 17% and September sales were off by about 11%.

The fall months aren’t the most important for the Lawrence real estate market — spring and summer are more significant — so those numbers by themselves aren’t hugely concerning. But there is another number in the report that is a potential red flag. Through November, the Lawrence market has added 1,178 new listings. That’s down 4% from last year. That’s not usually the formula for success. For example, when Lawrence’s home market bounced back in 2024, it did so by increasing the number of listings it had by 10% from 2023 levels. The idea that Lawrence is going to increase its home sales in 2025 by having fewer listings than 2024 is kind of like a football team having lots of turnovers but still winning the game. It is possible, but it is not the norm.

The law of supply and demand suggests that if those listing numbers don’t increase, there will be upward pressure on local housing prices (unless demand also falls.) The price of housing has become one of the hottest political topics in Lawrence. If Lawrence finishes 2025 with median home prices rising less than 2%, that’s big news. But the big question will quickly become whether it is sustainable?

Here’s a look at some other figures from the November Lawrence Board of Realtors report.

• One reason a less than 2% increase in Lawrence home prices would be big news is because such a rate would be quite a bit better than what our neighbors are experiencing. Through November, the median selling price of homes in the KC metro is up 5.6%. In the Topeka metro, median prices are up 5.9%. It also is worth noting that Lawrence’s median selling price currently is below the median selling price in the KC metro, which has not always been the case. Lawrence’s median selling price is $320,250, while the KC metro checks in at $322,000. In case you need a reminder of how different the Topeka and Lawrence real estate markets have become, the median selling price in Topeka is $215,000.

• While home sales are up in Lawrence, the number can benefit from some perspective. Lawrence will likely finish 2025 with significantly fewer sales than what the city had in 2020. The city had 1,339 home sales that year. Through November, the city has 932 home sales. Spoiler alert, Lawrence is not going to have 400-plus home sales in December to make up that gap. A 100-sale month would be a big December in the Lawrence real estate market. Given that, Lawrence is likely to finish 2025 with fewer home sales than the city had in 2022 and 2021, as well.

• With all that said, the report shows 2025 is set to be a very good year for the local real estate industry in one key regard: Total sales value. Through November, there has been $344.5 million in home sales in Lawrence. That ups 13% from the $303.9 million in sales through November 2024. Given that those total dollar figures determine how much real estate agents and brokers get paid, that figure is also big news within the industry.