photo by: John English

This aerial photo taken on June 12, 2022, shows Lawrence with the University of Kansas campus in the background.

When it comes to maps and elections, I suspect most of you are just looking for one that shows the quickest path to the finish line.

That’s not what I have today, but I do have another interesting map and numbers about whether Lawrence should change its form of city government to one that creates four new Lawrence City Commission districts.

As a reminder, voters are deciding that question — which also includes whether Lawrence should have a directly elected mayor — as part of the Nov. 5 general election. The City Commission currently has five commissioners who are all elected at-large, with one of the commissioners also serving as mayor. The proposed system — which must win voter approval to move forward — would expand the governing body to six commissioners, with four of the commissioners elected from geographic districts and two elected at large. Voters also would directly elect a mayor, bringing to seven the number of people who serve on the commission.

Earlier this week, I reported on six maps that show possibilities of how the city might divide itself into districts. An official map won’t be created unless and until voters approve the ballot measure, but these maps give you an idea of how such divisions might occur.

Today, I have a different type of map. It provides a glimpse of what parts of the city have been producing city commissioners. One of the selling points of creating City Commission districts is that it could make it more likely that people from across the city are serving on the commission. However, it has been a little unclear whether a lack of geographic diversity has been a problem on the commission.

The map below provides an imperfect look at the situation from 2009 to 2021.

photo by: City of Lawrence

The map shows the geographic locations of residences for the Lawrence commissioners between 2009 and 2021.

The map shows that nine commissioners during that time had residences west of Iowa Street, while seven had residences east of Iowa Street. That’s a pretty close balance from an east-west perspective.

There are two areas that you can argue are getting shortchanged — south Lawrence and far eastern Lawrence. During the time period there was only one commissioner with a residence south of Clinton Parkway/23rd Street, and barely so. There were no commissioners with a residence east of Haskell Avenue.

The map also shows there was no commissioner with a residence east of Massachusetts Street, but that is where the map is imperfect. I know from personal knowledge that during that time period there was at least one commissioner who lived east of Massachusetts Street during at least part of her term. The map, which was produced by city staff, also notes that one commissioner during the time period is not listed because that commissioner only provided a P.O. Box. (How do we not know where a commissioner lived?)

I had planned to make my own map showing this for a bit longer period, but the key database to do that is housed on the Douglas County website, and that particular archive on the website is currently down.

However, this map — which was produced for the city-appointed task force that studied the districting question — provides a nice glimpse. As I noted earlier, far west Lawrence is better represented than far east Lawrence, but the map generally suggests the center of the city has been better represented than the edges during the last decade.

•••

Enough with maps for a while. Let’s look at some numbers. In particular, small numbers. If you ever are looking for a small number in Lawrence, a good place to find one is in the voter turnout percentage on City Commission elections.

The voter turnout percentage in the city/school board general election in 2023 was 26.1%. For the 2023 primary election, it was 10.7%.

I’ve heard people wonder, if you start dividing the City Commission into districts, how many votes it would take for someone to get elected, given those low turnout numbers. I’ve done some math on that front.

The simple answer is candidates likely will need 4,000 to 5,000 fewer votes to win election under this system than the current one. That’s a reduction of more than 50%, in many cases.

Let me show my work: The number of residents in Douglas County 18 and older was 97,950. Of those adults, just under 80,000 were registered to vote, or about 81%. If you break Lawrence into four equally populated districts, the average number of residents in each district that are of voting age is 19,510. If 81% of them actually register to vote, that is about 15,800 registered voters. If 26% of them actually do vote, that is a little more than 4,100 voters in a district. In a two-person race, you could win that election with a little more than 2,050 votes.

For comparison purposes, the three winners of the 2023 City Commission elections — all three ran in at-large districts — received between 9,200 and 7,300 votes. I think you would have many elections where a district commissioner — in a two-person race — would win with about 3,000 votes or less.

The numbers for a primary election also are interesting. The math is the same, except the voter turnout percentage is much lower at about 10%. In a three-person race where candidate No. 1 won 40% of the vote, candidate No. 2 won 35% of the vote and candidate No. 3 won 25% of the vote, the top two candidates would move onto the general election with about 675 and 590 votes, respectively. For comparison purposes, a candidate had to win more than 1,000 votes in 2023 to move out of the primary.

I suspect that some voters will dislike that it will take fewer votes to win a seat on the City Commission, while other voters will think that is a big selling point for the new system. Theoretically, it will make campaigns cheaper, and perhaps easier, to conduct if you have to reach fewer people.

It is important to note, however, that it is unclear how the city would conduct primary elections and general elections under the new format. Having a general election where there are only two candidates competing for each district is common in many jurisdictions, but there may be other ways to conduct elections. The city-approved resolution calling for this special election provides details about the timing of elections, but doesn’t get into details about how many candidates trigger a primary. If the ballot question is approved in November, city commissioners would be required to pass ordinances providing details about how the City Commission would move to its new structure.

•••

Lastly, let’s look at some numbers of the demographic type. When I was going through the exercise of creating six different election maps, I was reminded of a key point about Lawrence: It is not very diverse in terms of race or political affiliation.

Anybody who thinks the district system will create some true minority districts in Lawrence is likely to be disappointed. None of the districts I created came close to being a stronghold for Black, Hispanic or other minority groups, and no district approached having a Republican partisan lean.

The mapping software I used — Dave’s Redistricting — provided such demographic data using the U.S. Census and recent presidential and Congressional election results.

Nearly every district I drew had minority populations of less than 30%. The top number was 32%, and that was for a district in south Lawrence, largely south of 23rd Street, stretching all the way to the eastern city limits. A similar district that included all of Lawrence southeast of 15th and Iowa streets also had a minority population of about 31%.

As for partisan demographics, you may recall that Lawrence City Commission elections are nonpartisan, meaning candidates don’t file as a Democrat or a Republican. That would not change under the new system. However, looking at the partisan makeup of a district could provide insight to how conservative or liberal candidates might be from districts.

As you likely know, Democrats have a huge registration advantage in Lawrence. The highest Republican percentage of any of the districts I drew was 30%. That was for a west Lawrence district that basically included all the city west of Monterey Way.

Look all you want, but a time machine — rather than a new map — likely will be required to create a Lawrence district that favors Republican sentiments.