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There have been only 49 newly constructed homes sold in Lawrence this year.

That whooshing noise you hear in your house now is probably just the furnace trying to keep up with a cold December day. In the past, though, you could be forgiven for mistaking it as the sound of your home soaring in value.

But the latest local data on home sales suggests that Lawrence’s multiyear period of home values increasing by 10% or more is now fully behind us.

For three straight years — 2020 through 2022 — the median selling price of homes in Lawrence increased by more than 10% per year. Last year, the streak broke, with the median selling price rising by 4.2% to $302,250. The question, though, was whether that moderation would last.

Thus far, the answer in 2024 is yes, and then some.

Through October, the median selling price of Lawrence homes is up 3.3%. If that trend continues through the end of the year, 2024 will be the slowest year of home price growth in Lawrence since 2018, according to data from the Lawrence Board of Realtors.

That’s not to say that homes in Lawrence are now cheap. The median selling price thus far in 2024 is $315,000. That’s $10,000 more than the median selling price in the Kansas City metro, according to figures from the Kansas City Regional Association of Realtors.

The latest figures also are a reminder of how much the Lawrence housing market has changed since 2018. Back then, the median selling price of a Lawrence home was $194,950, about $10,000 less than the median selling price in the KC metro. Since then, the median selling price in Lawrence has increased by just more than 60%, while the median selling price in the KC metro has grown by just under 50%. Or, in terms of dollars, the median selling price grew by about $120,000 in Lawrence and by about $100,000 in KC.

The latest numbers, though, show that a reversal may be on tap. Through October, Kansas City home prices have been increasing at a faster rate than Lawrence home prices in 2024. Lawrence’s median is up 3.3% compared with a 5.2% increase in the KC metro.

Those prices also may be causing another trend: The number of homes sold is growing faster in Lawrence than in the Kansas City market in 2024. Neither market is booming, but Lawrence home sales are up 2.2% for the year. Home sales in the KC metro are up 0.6% thus far in 2024.

Lawrence is trying to end a streak of three straight years of declining home sales. It is still too early to say that Lawrence will finish 2024 with an increase, as we must await totals from November and December.

It would be surprising in one regard if 2024 is the year that streak ends. The Lawrence Board of Realtors highlighted the reason in its latest report: The number of newly constructed homes being sold in Lawrence is at a recent low point.

There have been only 49 newly constructed homes sold in Lawrence this year. That’s down from 89 in 2023 and down from 200 in 2020. Every year since 2020 has produced a decline in sales of newly constructed homes. Jill Ballew, president of the Lawrence Board of Realtors, said that trend is problematic.

“A healthy housing market needs balance, and the availability of new construction is simply falling way behind in our area, while other markets in the region are expanding new housing starts,” she said in the organization’s latest report.

The fact that Lawrence is on pace for its lowest number of new home sales isn’t surprising, given that we reported last month that Lawrence is on pace to issue a record low number of building permits.

What is surprising is that home sales overall are going up in Lawrence, given that so few new homes are being built and sold. For the time being, the number of existing homes on the market is enough to allow for some growth in home sales. How long that will last is unclear. At some point, you would expect home sales to either decline due to a lack of new homes on the market or for prices to increase sharply due to limited supply. Lawrence has seen both of those trends play out over the last few years, but not so much in 2024.

The moderation in home prices is likely welcome by buyers, but it also may be welcomed by existing homeowners who aren’t looking to buy or sell. Selling prices of homes are a key data point that the county tax appraiser uses in setting the tax value of your home. A slowdown in home prices should mean a slowdown in tax values too. New tax values are mailed to homeowners in the spring, but they will largely be set using home prices from 2024.

Here’s a look at some other statistics from the latest report from the Lawrence Board of Realtors:

• Home sales were up 14% in October, the latest month for which numbers are available.

• Year-to-date home sales total 774 in Lawrence. While that is up about 2% from a year ago, it is still well below 2022 figures. Through October of 2022, there had been 1,005 home sales. In other words, home sales in 2024 are still more than 20% below the totals from two years ago.

• The number of days a home sits on the market before selling is up slightly. The median number of days a home sits on the market is eight, up from four a year ago. The average number of days is 23, up from 19 at this point in 2023.

• The number of homes on the market in October was up from a year ago. There were 190 homes on the market in Lawrence, up from 149 at this point last year. It is up from 105 at this point in 2022.

• Thus far the Lawrence real estate industry has sold $268 million worth of homes through October of 2024. That’s up from $255 million at this point in 2023, but down sharply from the $330 million of sales in the market through October 2022.

While not part of the monthly report, here’s a look at median home prices in Lawrence and the Kansas City metro over the past several years, with the 2024 number through October:

• 2018: $194,950 Lawrence; $205,000 KC

• 2019: $213,000 Lawrence; $217,500 KC

• 2020: $236,400 Lawrence; $238,500 KC

• 2021: $263,621 Lawrence; $260,000 KC

• 2022: $290,000 Lawrence; $286,008 KC

• 2023: $302,500 Lawrence; $295,000 KC

• 2024: $315,000 Lawrence; $305,000 KC