photo by: Mike Yoder/Journal-World

Seen from the roof of Weaver's Department Store, 901 Massachusetts St., Kansas band members and the Kansas Spirit Squad lead off the Kansas Basketball National Championship Parade Sunday, April 10, 2022.

There are plenty of individual reminders that we didn’t have a huge national championship party in April like we did a year ago. (Unopened bags of crimson and blue confetti, untapped drums of nacho cheese sauce, and unholy thoughts of how my annual pig party should feature a Razorback.)

But that’s nothing compared to the Lawrence economy. It may have 17 million reminders.

Lawrence recently received its June sales tax check from the state of Kansas. While the check came in June, it actually reflects sales that were primarily made in April. The numbers show that Lawrence retail sales in April 2023 were about $17 million less than Lawrence retail sales in April 2022.

If you remember, we had a little bit of a party in April 2022 after the Jayhawks won the NCAA National Championship in men’s basketball. We didn’t have such an occasion in April 2023.

In all, Lawrence’s sales tax collections fell by 10% during the month of April, which is saying something since inflation continues to put upward pressure on sales tax collections. The 10% drop for the month is a steep one by Lawrence standards, and was a much bigger slowdown than the state as a whole saw. Local sales tax collections statewide were down 3.9% for the period.

It is impossible to say that all of Lawrence’s slowdown is tied to the lack of basketball craziness. It probably is not. The numbers from the Kansas Department of Revenue suggest something else was happening in the state’s economy in April. Interestingly, it was happening in the state’s larger cities more so than in the smaller towns.

Of the nine large retail markets in the state, seven of them posted sales tax declines that were greater than the statewide average. Many smaller communities did not see such steep declines. At first I thought gasoline prices could be the culprit, causing fewer shoppers to drive into cities and instead stay closer to home. But April 2023 gasoline prices were lower than April 2022 prices, according to national averages.

Mortgage interest rates certainly were higher in April 2023 than April 2022, which theoretically could suck some disposable income out of the economy as some homeowners would be paying more for their housing. Hard to tell if that actually happened, though. That’s what the Fed would like to see happen to tame inflation. If that’s what’s behind these numbers, get ready for a bumpy second half of the year.

As is usually the case, it is hard to figure out why sales tax collections rise or fall in any given month. But this past month’s decline was noteworthy, and it will be important to watch how the second half of the year plays out.

Plus, it was fun to remember just how big a party we had. (Distant party memories are best because they require fewer aspirins than day-after-party memories.)

To be clear, Lawrence sales tax collections did not drop by $17 million in a single month. Lawrence collects a total of 1.55% in citywide sales taxes on purchases made in the city. During this last reporting period, the city received about $270,000 less in sales tax collections, according to figures provided by the state. When you do the reverse math on those figures, that equates to about $17 million less in retail sales that occurred in Lawrence during the month.

The $270,000 drop in sales tax collections for the month is noteworthy but far from crisis-inducing at City Hall, which is budgeting to collect about $54 million in various sales taxes in 2023.

Thus far, with six of the 12 sales tax checks in the bank for 2023, the city is posting sales tax growth compared to a year ago. But the rate of growth has slowed significantly. Whether that ends up causing a problem for the city’s budget depends on collections in the next six months.

Lawrence has seen its sales tax collections grow by 4.6% thus far in 2023. Last year they grew by a little more than 8%, and in 2021 they grew by more than 9%. Both of those totals were historically high growth rates. The 4.6% growth rate of this year would rank as a strong year, when looking at past returns.

However, it isn’t great by this year’s standards. It is slightly below average. Statewide, the average increase for local sales tax collections is at 6.4%. Compared to the other large retail markets in the state, Lawrence’s year-to-date growth rate is in the middle of the pack.

Here’s a look at year-to-date growth rates for other large retail markets:

• Lenexa: up 7.1%

• Topeka: up 6.2%

• Kansas City: up 6.0%

• Overland Park: up 5.6%

• Sedgwick County: up 5.3%

• Lawrence: up 4.6%

• Shawnee: up 3.7%

• Olathe: up 3.4%

• Salina: up 2.9%

Since we are at the halfway point in the year, I’ll also pass along some year-to-date totals from smaller communities in the Lawrence area:

• Basehor: down 1.1%

• Bonner Springs: up 5.6%

• Eudora: up 7.0%

• Lecompton: down 1.85%

• Leavenworth: up 1.3%

• Oskaloosa: down 2.0%

• Ottawa: up 6.5%

• Perry: down 14.6%

• Tonganoxie: up 11.3%

• Wellsville: up 17.2%

Note: Before I get notes accusing me of hating Baldwin City, they are not on the list because the community recently changed its sales tax rate, which makes it difficult to compare current results to last year. The same is true for De Soto, and that also is why Manhattan is not on the list of larger communities.