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Lawrence’s largest natural gas utility is now warning that winter heating bills will increase by about 57%, on average, as predicted cold weather and high gas prices team up to produce pain on pocketbooks.

Black Hills Energy said on Tuesday that an average home is likely to see a monthly natural gas bill of about $120 this winter, compared to about $78 last year.

If you are a natural gas customer, you may feel like you have heard this news before. We reported earlier this month that Black Hills was projecting the average residential monthly bill to increase by $12 as a result of Black Hills recouping extraordinary fuel costs related to the arctic blast that hit the region in February. That increase amounted to about a 15% increase on monthly bills.

But you should remember that we also warned another shoe may drop. While we hopefully won’t have another arctic blast to contend with, forecasters are predicting a cold winter, and it comes at a time when the price for natural gas is higher than average. Basically, paying to keep your house warm this winter is expected to add about $42 onto the average monthly residential gas bill, while paying for the February arctic blast will cost about $12 per month. Added together, they amount to the expected 57% increase for the average home. A big difference to remember is that hopefully the $42 per month increase will go away once winter subsides. The $12 monthly increase is expected to last for five years.

No matter how you add it up, there’s growing concern the winter heating bills are going to be burdensome to many households, but especially for lower-income families. David Nickel, consumer counsel for the Citizens’ Utility Ratepayer Board, said there’s reason to worry that utility bills will become such a large percentage of a household’s income that it forces difficult choices.

“That’s when it gets dangerous,” Nickel said. “You have households choosing between food, medicine and energy.”

Black Hills officials are stressing that customers may not see as large of an increase if they take steps to weatherize their homes.

“Simple things like weatherstripping windows and doors, foam-backed tape around windows, and tightening that envelope can really make a difference,” said James Williams, a spokesman for Black Hills Energy.

Other suggestions include:

• Lowering the thermostat in your home to 68 degrees;

• Lowering the temperature dial on your water heater;

• Plugging holes around outlets and light switches with special Styrofoam plugs designed to seal off energy loss;

• Installing a programmable thermostat;

• Leaving blinds open on the south-facing windows to let in sunlight to naturally warm the home.

Nickel also endorsed the idea of weatherizing homes, but he said it is time for state policymakers to also consider other options to provide energy bill relief to low-income residents. He said some states have adopted essentially sliding rate scales for natural gas or electric rates based on the income of the household. The scales are meant to ensure that low-income households don’t pay an excessive percentage of their total income on utility bills.

Thus far, Kansas doesn’t have any such rate systems, but Nickel said there are indications one natural gas provider intends to bring a plan for low-income rates to the Kansas Corporation Commission — the state’s utility regulators — in the near future.

“Energy burden is a real problem in Kansas,” Nickel said. “But I think all of our utilities do understand that.”

Black Hills officials stressed that the big jump in natural gas bills is not the result of a big rate increase for the utility. They remind customers that monthly natural gas bills have two parts — the amount of natural gas you use is one part, while the charges associated with delivering the natural gas to your home are the second part. Black Hills makes its profit on the delivery charges, while it passes along the costs related to the purchase of natural gas.

Bills this winter will be up largely due to higher natural gas prices.

“We are not a price-setter for natural gas,” Williams said. “We are a price-taker.”

Williams said the company does have several programs in place to try to help customers who are struggling with their utility bills. Households that meet certain income guidelines can qualify for up to $300 in utility bill assistance through a program managed by The Salvation Army and Warm Hearts of Douglas County. That program allows customers to round up the amount of their monthly bills, and then Black Hills matches 100% of all donations made through that program. Williams said Lawrence customers have been generous in making donations to the program.

“The program here in Lawrence is the most successful example we have of emergency assistance throughout our entire company,” Williams said. “Warm Hearts of Douglas County is in a strong position to help people in the community.”

People can apply for that program by calling 211 and asking to be connected to a utility assistance caseworker. Many social service agencies in the community also have application forms available.