The U.S. Senate Monday night confirmed Kansas Congressman Mike Pompeo as CIA Director, setting up a special election that could turn into the first public referendum on President Donald Trump’s new administration.

By most assessments, such a referendum would likely end favorably for whomever the Republican Party nominates, and for Trump himself, who carried the 4th District in the 2016 election, 60-38 percent over Democrat Hillary Clinton.

In that same election, Pompeo won a fourth term for his seat by an even wider margin, 61-30 percent over Democrat Daniel B. Giroux.

Pompeo was expected to submit his formal resignation immediately after the confirmation vote. Once Gov. Sam Brownback receives notice of that resignation, he will issue a proclamation declaring a vacancy in the seat and setting a date for a special election.

Kansas legislators rushed in the opening days of the session to push through a bill cleaning up the state’s special election statutes, which haven’t been invoked since the last congressional vacancy in 1950. The law now reads that the governor has five days from the day the vacancy occurs to issue a proclamation calling for a special election.

That election must be held 75-90 days after the vacancy occurs. Political parties must wait at least 15, but no more than 25 days to hold a convention to select their nominees.

Brownback’s office did not issue any statements Monday night about a special election, but it did post a comment on Twitter congratulating Pompeo for his confirmation:

“He’s brilliant. He’s qualified. He’s
Kansan. And now he’s our new @CIA
Director. Congratulations to
@RepMikePompeo.”

Pompeo’s confirmation occurred on the same day the Gallop polling organization released the first public job approval rating for President Trump, showing the nation evenly divided, 45-45 percent, on his performance in office so far.

So the decision for 4th District Republicans may be whether they want to nominate someone who will be close and loyal to the Trump administration, or perhaps someone who promises to be more independent-minded.

The strategy for Democrats, though, will likely be to cast anyone the GOP nominates as a Trump loyalist, hoping to capitalize on his relatively low national approval ratings.

Clay Barker, executive director of the Kansas Republican Party, said the GOP has tentatively set Thursday, Feb. 9, as the date for its district convention, to be held somewhere in Wichita. That’s the day before the state GOP’s statewide convention begins. The Kansas Democratic Party did not respond Monday to questions about its nomination plans.

So far, State Treasurer Ron Estes and Alan Cobb, a Trump campaign adviser and former lobbyist for the Kansas chapter of Americans for Prosperity, have publicly expressed their interest in the nomination. And former 4th District Rep. Todd Tiahrt is sometimes mentioned as a possible candidate.

On the Democratic side, no top-tier politicians have stepped forward to announce plans for the seat, but party insiders have been strongly recruiting former House Minority Leader Dennis McKinney of Greensburg to throw his hat in the ring. Current Rep. Henry Helgerson, D-Wichita, is also mentioned as a possible candidate. Both told the Journal-World recently that they’ve made no decision about the race.