Kansas guard Darryn Peterson (22) reacts as he is recognized by Kansas head coach Bill Self following the senior speeches following the Jayhawks’ 104-85 win over the Wildcats on Saturday, March 7, 2026 at Allen Fieldhouse. Photo by Nick Krug

Kansas coach Bill Self said on Monday that he felt his team was right on the edge between being a No. 4 and No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament as it was set to begin postseason play.

That assertion was borne out in a variety of bracket projections released on Thursday morning as the Big 12 tournament’s quarterfinal round was about to begin.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had for several days maintained KU as the third of four No. 4 seeds, or the No. 15 team overall. That remained consistent in his Thursday bracket, which had the Jayhawks in the East region (Washington), facing off against No. 13 seed Sam Houston in Portland, Oregon.

KU has played one game in its history in the City of Roses, an 84-78 loss to Oregon on Dec. 7, 2002. If the Jayhawks get assigned to Portland or San Diego (another recent Lunardi suggestion) for the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, they will play on the West Coast for the postseason for the first time since the second weekend of the 2007 tournament.

As for Sam Houston, the Bearkats have made the tournament twice in their history and not since 2010 (and have never been higher than a No. 14 seed or gotten past the first round), but this year went 13-7 in Conference USA to finish second in the league and will play a semifinal matchup on Friday. The top seed, Liberty, got eliminated already.

The other half of Lunardi’s projected Portland pod includes No. 5 seed Tennessee and No. 12 Northern Iowa. KU beat Tennessee in comeback fashion at the Players Era earlier this season, 81-76. Jayhawk fans would surely rather not see the Panthers in the postseason after they upset a top-seeded KU team in 2010. This year, UNI was just a No. 6 seed in Arch Madness but beat four teams in four days in St. Louis to earn the Missouri Valley Conference’s automatic qualifying spot.

In fact, some bracket projections have the Jayhawks facing the Panthers in the first round, like On3’s, because it has UNI as a No. 13 seed in Philadelphia. KU has not had a lot of success at the Philadelphia venue for this tournament, which is now known as Xfinity Mobile Arena and is the home of the 76ers. The Jayhawks’ history there includes ill-fated winter trips to face Temple and Villanova. That said, KU does have a 5-4 all-time record in the city as a whole.

If KU were to beat UNI in the projection by On3’s James Fletcher III, which puts the Jayhawks in the South region (Houston), they would face either No. 5 Louisville or No. 12 South Florida. The Cardinals, who lost at home to KU in an exhibition in October, are currently awaiting the return of injured star guard Mikel Brown Jr. USF is in its first year under head coach Bryan Hodgson, won a regular-season conference title and enters the American semifinals on a nine-game winning streak.

USA Today on Thursday, like ESPN, had KU paired with Sam Houston, but placed the matchup in Tampa, Florida, where the Jayhawks have never played, although they have had a fair number of games up the road in Orlando for multi-team events or on the road at UCF.

The USA Today projection, which also has KU in the South region, pairs the Jayhawks and Bearkats with No. 5 Tennessee and No. 12 McNeese State. McNeese punched its ticket on Wednesday night by beating Stephen F. Austin in the Southland final and is headed to the postseason for the third straight year despite a coaching change from Will Wade (now at N.C. State) to former Wade assistant Bill Armstrong.

CBS Sports has been for some time the most prominent outlet projecting KU as a No. 5 seed (the Bracket Matrix aggregator on Wednesday had seven of its 114 collected brackets doing so). Its Thursday projection had No. 5 KU in the East region taking on No. 12 Yale (the regular-season Ivy League champion and top seed in Ivy Madness). The winner would face either No. 13 High Point, which has already won the Big South tournament, or Big 12 foe No. 4 Texas Tech. That is technically allowed because KU and Tech only played once during the regular season, a 64-61 victory for the Jayhawks at United Supermarkets Arena on Feb. 2.