Kansas forward Flory Bidunga (40) defends against a shot from TCU forward David Punch (15) during the second half on Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2026 at Allen Fieldhouse. The Jayhawks defeated the Horned Frogs, 104-100. Photo by Nick Krug

The result of Saturday’s BYU-Texas Tech game at the Marriott Center gave Kansas a boost to the No. 3 seed in the Big 12 tournament.

That allowed the Jayhawks to avoid the high likelihood an immediate date with Iowa State on Thursday. As their reward — such as it is — they now have a high probability of facing what head coach Bill Self said is likely the hottest team in the league.

“I think TCU has played as well as anybody in the last month, without question,” Self said on Tuesday.

The sixth-seeded Horned Frogs still aren’t set in stone as KU’s opponent; they’ll have to win a game against a lower-seeded foe at 8:30 p.m. on Wednesday night in order to make it to Thursday. And games against lesser foes have been no guarantee for TCU, which has losses to New Orleans, Notre Dame and last-place Utah on its record.

The Frogs have, however, set all that inconsistency aside for an impressive run over the last month. Since Feb. 7, TCU is 8-1, and ranks No. 35 in the nation in Bart Torvik’s rankings over that same time frame (KU is 5-4 and No. 37), compared to No. 59 previously. In that period, the Frogs have victories over then-No. 5 Iowa State and then-No. 10 Texas Tech.

A big part of TCU’s development is the increased production of 6-foot-8 forward Xavier Edmonds, who was named third-team All-Big 12 on Monday. Edmonds, a junior-college transfer, did not record a double-double in the entirety of the Horned Frogs’ nonconference schedule. Since Jan. 20, he has 10, including a 26-point, 10-rebound performance on 9-for-10 shooting in the narrow victory over Kansas State that began TCU’s hot streak.

Forward Micah Robinson, who was previously providing the Frogs a spark as a sixth man, has acquitted himself well in increased playing time of late, as Liutauras Lelevicius, whose best game of the season came with 23 points on five 3s against KU on Jan. 6, has gone to the bench.

The Jayhawks were fortunate to escape with a win in that overtime thriller, in which Darryn Peterson scored a career-high 32 points and Melvin Council Jr. helped rally KU late as Peterson was dealing with cramps. The Jayhawks trailed by as many as 16 points, including by 13 with four minutes to go, before TCU’s late collapse and some clutch shooting saved them at Allen Fieldhouse.

As much of an issue as Lelevicius presented for KU in that game, the biggest matchup problem was sophomore David Punch, Edmonds’ partner in the frontcourt who tallied 20 points and nine rebounds of his own before battling his own cramping issues. Punch hasn’t been as effective of late, but did receive an all-league honorable mention.

Point guard Brock Harding and shooting guard Jayden Pierre (10.4 points on 35.9% shooting from deep) round out the starting lineup, and fellow guard Tanner Toolson is the most prominent remaining bench contributor.

KU, of course, will not be assured of a matchup with TCU until about 11 p.m. on Wednesday, if the Frogs are indeed able to dispatch their initial opponent. In the meantime, the KU assistant coaches who handled scouting reports for each of the Jayhawks’ three possible foes as of Tuesday afternoon — Colorado, Oklahoma State and TCU — during the regular season have been preparing again as though they are about to face their assigned teams. (Colorado and Oklahoma State had not completed their first-round matchup, with the winner set to take on the Frogs, at the time of publication.)

“We’ll approach them all like they’re the next game,” Self said.

And in at least two cases approach them anew, because while the Jayhawks are just three weeks removed from OSU — although the Cowboys do look a lot different without forward Parsa Fallah — TCU and Colorado (Jan. 20) are much further in the past.

“That’s almost like a different season,” Self said. “So we’ll definitely study them hard. But for the most part, the hay’s in the barn, so to speak, with the teams in our league.”

Second-seeded Houston is the most likely semifinal foe if KU pulls off a victory on Thursday night. The Jayhawks previously beat the Cougars 69-56 at Allen Fieldhouse on Feb. 23.

“It’s obviously a tough side, and you look at the other side, you got two top 14 or 15 teams on the other side in a quarterfinal game, possibly,” Self said, referencing Iowa State and Texas Tech. “Any way you look at it in this league, I think both sides are going to be considered to be tough sides.”

One aspect that could make the situation just a bit easier for KU would be a strong fan turnout. Council spent part of his memorable senior-day speech on Saturday exhorting Jayhawk fans to make the trip to the T-Mobile Center. He said on Tuesday that trainer Bill Cowgill had urged him to do so.

“I haven’t been at Kansas, but the past couple years, he told me that Iowa State (brought) the most fans to the T-Mobile Center and stuff,” Council said. “And he don’t want to see that again, and I don’t want to see that either. We play for our fans, so why not everybody come support. They give us energy.”