photo by: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

Kansas players huddle before an NCAA college football game against Kansas State Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024, in Manhattan.

Like many head coaches, Kansas’ Lance Leipold often talks about the importance of taking games one at a time.

But his Jayhawks, having fallen to 2-6 with a loss in the Sunflower Showdown two weeks ago, now find themselves in a position where they must win out over the next four games to ensure a trip to their third straight bowl game, and as Leipold said on Monday, “Our guys know.”

“I don’t want us in a pressing situation, either,” he said. “It’s a balance for me in how we approach that. Like I said, we don’t like talking about a lot of things that aren’t there. But they know.”

Given that KU found a variety of increasingly elaborate and perplexing ways to lose six games over the first two thirds of its season, it’s not out of the question that the Jayhawks could pull out four equally unlikely wins. However, they have their work cut out for them.

“We have to play the best we ever have,” running back Devin Neal said. “At the end of the day, we have to execute better in late games. It just has to happen. We know that, we accept it, and I think the bye week kind of re-hit those focal points that we need to work on, especially when we’re tired.”

Each of the next three teams they play are ranked, beginning with No. 17 Iowa State, their opponent for Saturday at 2:30 p.m. at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Cyclones just sustained their first loss of the season, falling 23-22 to Texas Tech at home after escaping what could have been a similar defeat against UCF two weeks prior.

“It’s going to be a team that’s going to come in here and want to put themselves back on track,” Leipold said. “They have a chance to compete yet to be in the conference championship. They’re still in the playoff conversation, and it’ll be a huge test for us.”

BYU, KU’s next opponent, now sits alone atop the Big 12, but it’s not hard to see how ISU put itself in contention in the first place. The Cyclones have the best scoring defense in the league, as they allow just 15.5 points per game. They have been particularly strong against the pass, giving up an average of 146.6 passing yards, which is third-lowest in the nation, and intercepting 14 passes.

“They’re a defense that’s going to try to play on top of things and do everything they can to prevent explosive plays,” KU offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes said, “and see if you can move the ball down the field in a 12-, 15-, 18-play drive and score.”

They have not been as solid against opposing running backs this year, most recently giving up 122 yards and a touchdown to Tech’s Tahj Brooks; however, they have had success against the Jayhawks in this department in the past. Last year in Ames, even as the Jayhawks won 28-21, ISU held KU to its worst rushing performance of the last two seasons. Neal averaged 2.7 yards on 21 carries that day; the only game of his career in which he has done worse was the very first, as he had one carry for one yard against South Dakota as a freshman. He’ll be hoping for more success this time around.

“We have to establish that early, just to open up the other avenues of the game,” he said.

On the other side of the ball, the Cyclones have a wide array of playmakers, even if they’re not the biggest names in the conference. Quarterback Rocco Becht is averaging 251.4 passing yards per game and the vast majority of his yardage comes on completions to Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, who rank among the best in the Big 12 in catches and yards.

“When it comes time (for) crunch time, you better be aware of where 13 and 9 are at,” defensive coordinator Brian Borland said.

That ISU is back on the national stage speaks well of head coach Matt Campbell and his work toward, as Leipold puts it, “building a football program for not just periodic success but sustained success,” particularly after the Cyclones interrupted a string of five straight bowl appearances with a 4-8 season in 2022.

“They had a down year and everybody kind of forgot about them and kind of wrote them off as it was going and then all of a sudden last year he put them right back in it,” Leipold said. “Now he has them ranked and again competing for a championship. It’s a testament to him and his staff and how they go about it.”

Whatever happens the rest of this year, four-game winning streak or otherwise, Leipold and his program may have to bounce back in a similar fashion in 2025.

Kansas Jayhawks (2-6, 1-4 Big 12) vs. No. 17 Iowa State Cyclones (7-1, 4-1 Big 12)

• GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri, 2:30 p.m.

• Broadcast: FS1

• Radio: Jayhawk Radio Network (in Lawrence, KLWN AM 1320 / K269GB FM 101.7 / KKSW FM 105.9)

• Betting line: ISU -3; over/under 50.5

• Series history: KU leads 52-45-6

What to watch for

1. Ripple effect: KU is a middling team in terms of penalties and overall penalty yardage, but it has begun to incur some significant flags at pivotal moments. The Jayhawks possessed the ball three separate times with a one-point lead in the Sunflower Showdown. On two of those drives, penalties pushed KU into second-and-long situations from which it was forced to pass and was eventually unable to get a first down. (In the final case, a false start on Bryce Cabeldue immediately preceded Jalon Daniels’ costly fumble.) With Iowa State currently tied as the nation’s second-least-penalized team, discipline in these key situations could make the difference on Saturday.

2. House divided: Turnout among KU fans hasn’t necessarily been stellar at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, as most recently 38,619 showed up to see the Jayhawks beat Houston on Oct. 19. KU may have lost another game since then, but will need all the support it can get given ISU fans’ propensity for traveling down to Kansas City. The Cyclones have in recent years essentially enjoyed a home-court advantage in most of their games at the Big 12 basketball tournament and will undoubtedly have plenty of supporters in cardinal and gold filling up Arrowhead. ISU tight end Tyler Moore said this week, “I feel like it’s going to have that kind of home-game feeling.”

3. Backfield split: KU running back Daniel Hishaw Jr. missed the KSU game due to injury, his second such absence this season. His status for Saturday is not yet known. Against the Wildcats, KU mostly chose to mitigate Hishaw’s absence by making less significant use of a secondary running back. (In fact, the Jayhawks didn’t run the ball with their running backs much overall, as Neal got 13 carries, his lowest total since sitting out half the season opener.) Sevion Morrison only played eight snaps. However, on one such play, with Neal also briefly out due to a minor injury, Morrison ran for a 38-yard touchdown. If Hishaw doesn’t go again, the KU coaching staff will have to decide whether Morrison has earned additional playing time commensurate with what Hishaw usually gets.

Spotlight on…

Trevor Wilson: The sixth-year senior wide receiver, one of a few remaining players on the roster who followed Leipold from Buffalo, is sometimes a bit of a forgotten man given the success of KU’s top three wideouts. But against Kansas State he made multiple contested catches and finished with four receptions for 69 yards, following up a solid play on the sideline against Houston. Leipold has said the K-State game may have been Wilson’s best as a Jayhawk, and added on Monday, “Any time a player has those types of things happen in back-to-back weeks … you see their confidence rise and you hope you have a chance to continue to get them the ball.”

Inside the numbers

100: The percentage of red-zone trips by KU that have resulted in a score, making the Jayhawks just one of two teams in the country with a perfect mark.

12: The number of consecutive games in which Becht has thrown a passing touchdown, tying a school record held by Brock Purdy.

7: The remaining number of rushing yards Neal needs to become KU’s all-time rushing leader.

Prediction

ISU wins 27-21. The Cyclones are likely the best team KU has played all year, and while KU is playing some of its most polished football at this juncture, the Jayhawks simply haven’t been able to close out games.

The combination of ISU’s success against the pass this season — especially with Grimes noting this week that they have done well disguising coverages, the sort of thing that has troubled Daniels at times — and its success against the run in prior matchups with KU does not bode well for the Jayhawks’ offense.

Meanwhile, KU’s defense hasn’t played against a group of wide receivers like the Cyclones’ since TCU. The Jayhawks gave up 356 passing yards in that game and have struggled with injuries at safeties since. It’s just not adding up to a big win for KU.