Kenny Rogers famously sang, “You’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em, know when to walk away, and know when to run.” This summer, two candidates for Kansas governor made wildly different risk assessments. This not only tells us a lot about them, but also about their respective parties.

Former Gov. Jeff Colyer entered the race as a strong contender, maybe even front runner for the Republican nomination. In the fall 2025 Kansas Speaks poll, Colyer had the highest name recognition of any gubernatorial candidate in either party. He started raising money and placing billboards along highways, featuring a photo of himself next to President Trump, quoting Trump saying that Colyer was “one helluva governor.”

Then it ended. Just days after Trump endorsed outgoing state Senate President Ty Masterson for governor, Colyer withdrew. Granted, Colyer already had one major liability — he served as lieutenant governor in the Brownback administration, with its disastrous tax-cutting experiment. Yet Colyer carved his own, more prudent record for two years as governor, and could easily have run on his own record and name recognition. No matter — Colyer folded ’em and walked away right after the Masterson endorsement.

Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog is as bold and risk-taking as Colyer is cautious. On June 1, the Democratic field was already set, with Johnson County state Sens. Ethan Corson and Cindy Holscher each barnstorming the state. Corson is framing himself as a moderate pragmatist in the vein of Gov. Laura Kelly, who endorsed him early. With the help of her daughter, Holscher is running as a more aggressive candidate, denouncing corporate giveaways, courting younger voters and appearing in nontraditional social media. Then, all at once, Skoog came out of nowhere, filing for the Democratic nomination on June 1, just shy of the deadline.

Skoog’s high-stakes gambit infuriated Kelly, who denounced his “last minute, thrown together” campaign. He didn’t even tell her he was running until a day or two beforehand. He announced his entry into the race by saying he didn’t want Masterson to be governor, not only suggesting that the Republican race is already decided, but also implicitly dismissing Corson’s and Holscher’s chances. If Skoog ever wants to seek office as a Democrat in this state again, he had better win this time. Otherwise, his bridges will be thoroughly burned.

A recent poll shows Holscher in the lead, then Corson, then Skoog for the Dems. However, it also shows a high percentage of undecided voters. Skoog is hoping these undecideds are his ace in the hole, positioning himself as a get-it-done consensus builder with a proven, nonpartisan record, popular in his hometown.

At a deeper level, the fates of Colyer and Skoog say a lot about the state of the two parties. Donald Trump retains nearly complete control of the Republican Party, while neither Gov. Kelly nor anyone else wields this kind of clout among the Democrats. While the Democratic establishment would strongly prefer no additional candidates, it was not to be — and no one can stop Skoog now except the voters, should they choose. This contrast shows one party in which a single individual maintains almost total control, and a second whose establishment lacks the clout to keep last-minute, dark horse candidates out of the race.

— Michael Smith is a professor of political science at Emporia State University.