By many measures, one could argue the Kelly-Toland years have been the biggest economic boom the state has ever seen.

Pick any measure: $30 billion of private sector investment (most per capita in nation), almost 80,000 new or retained jobs that pay 7.7% more than the average private sector wage in Kansas, highest ever Kansas exports, four consecutive Golden Shovel awards, a recent $3 billion budget surplus, or the coup de grace, securing the biggest economic win in state history luring the Chiefs from Missouri.

Just don’t pick population growth. At least on its face.

Last month, Census population estimates were released for 2025 showing Kansas, while achieving a modicum of growth since 2020 (1.3%), lagged all neighboring states (Missouri, Colorado, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Nebraska) who averaged 2.8%, or more than double the rate of Kansas. The U.S. growth rate was 3.0%.

It’s hard to beat population growth as the gold standard metric for economic success in localities. It’s easy to see why when a community’s fortunes are tethered to it.

For example, in growing communities, if it costs each taxpayer $100 to provide “good” schools in their community, having more people (i.e., income) effectively allows the government to either lower everyone’s taxes to maintain the same level of service or keep spending levels at $100 for “better” schools. Either choice makes the community more competitive.

Conversely, communities with declining populations are death spirals. Fewer taxpayers paying $100 for “good” schools forces a decision point on local government — increase taxes to maintain “good” schools or keep them flat for “OK” schools. Either choice is a losing proposition and just induces more middle class wage-earners to vote with their feet, leaving behind a cost of operation fewer people can afford in their wake.

So, while adding jobs and private sector investment are significant precursors to growing population, why are Kansas’ population gains underachieving?

It depends how one looks at it.

Of the seven biggest developments that opened under Kelly-Toland, four were in growing urbanizing counties between 2020 and 2024 — NBAF/Riley (0.8%), NBAF/Pottawatomie (6.0%), Panasonic/Johnson (3.7%), Integra/Sedgwick (2.3%), and Urban Outfitters/Wyandotte (0.1%). Wyandotte springboards to 2.2% since 2022. The remaining three developments were in shrinking rural to semi-rural counties — Hilmar Cheese/Ford (-0.6%), Schwan’s Pizza/Saline (-1.6%), and Amber Wave/Phillips (-5.0%). Localized population growth is happening, but when 75% of the 105 counties have not grown since 2020, statewide gains fight an uphill battle.

Another trend affecting state population is the nation’s own growth. Population math made simple: take births, minus deaths, factor arriving and departing migrants. This formula ensured U.S. population growth was unstoppable over its 250-year history. And in turn helped states grow.

Until now.

By 2030, U.S. deaths will likely outnumber births. Without natural growth, only net migration remains. And under current immigration policies, net international migration has plummeted so much that the U.S. population could shrink for the first time in its history next year. Kansas’s own international migration in 2024-25 cratered to 7,440 from the previous year’s 13,829 due to the chilling effect on new migrants rather than deportations.

In conclusion, the Kelly-Toland wins have shown some silver linings even in the face of these obstacles. Last year, Kansas domestic net migration increased by 4,000 people from the previous year, virtually all 39,000-plus people added to Kansas since 2020 occurred since 2022, and many big STAR Bond projects focus on out-of-state visitors — a proxy for temporary population growth.

Good signs that the massive economic wins under Kelly-Toland stand to bear population fruit.

— Bill Fiander is a university lecturer in Kansas specializing in public administration, urban planning, and state/local government.