Has Trump changed how Kansans vote? It’s a question I hear a lot.

Here’s my take.

To assess change, we need a baseline. Mitt Romney offers one. He represents the final chapter of the Reagan-Bush tradition and the last GOP nominee before Trump fundamentally reshaped the party.

By comparing the electoral performances of Trump and Romney, I can identify those Kansas counties that shifted more Republican or more Democrat in the Trump era.

For example, an expansion of a county’s Republican support from plus-40 Romney (R70-D30) to plus-50 Trump (R75-D25) — a 10-point increase, is evidence of Trump’s impact.

Overall, 92 counties voted more Republican in 2024 than did so in 2012, by an average improved margin of 8 percentage points.

Of the 30 counties that shifted by 10 points or more, two-thirds are in eastern Kansas.

The largest shifts occurred in the southeast, where Trump shattered Romney’s margins in Bourbon and Cherokee counties by over 20 points, followed by Linn, Crawford and Anderson at 19 points apiece. Crawford transformed from a modest plus-6 Romney to a comfortable plus-25 Trump.

Even in solid blue Wyandotte County, Trump outperformed Romney’s margin by 14 points.

Trump didn’t just win. He grew the Republican coalition.

By contrast, 13 counties voted more Democratic in 2024, compared to 2012, by an average improved margin of 5.5 percentage points.

Those that shifted furthest left are in Kansas’ education corridor, home to its largest universities and its most affluent and educated county. Johnson County moved sharply in Democrats’ direction, from plus-8 Romney to plus-8 Harris — a massive 26-point swing.

Riley County flipped from plus-12 Romney to plus-2 Harris while deep blue Douglas County increased its margin from plus-24 to plus-38.

Democrats took Shawnee County as well while Sedgwick County swung plus-5 toward Democrats, cutting the GOP margin from plus-19 to plus-14.

Though Trump swept the swing states and dominated the Midwest, Democratic gains in Kansas’ largest counties shows localized resistance to broader electoral forces.

Educational attainment drives that resistance.

In counties where fewer than 25% hold a bachelor’s degree, Trump clearly outperformed Romney. Where over half the population has a degree, Democrats surged.

Trump recognized the diploma divide as not merely a gap in credentials but a cultural fault line that broadens the Republican base. Yet gains among noncollege voters cost Republicans support of the educated, affluent voters in the metropolitan areas.

Johnson County illustrates the point. It ranks first in wealth, educational attainment and population. The 26-point swing toward Democrats is one of the largest in the entire nation. But what makes it remarkable is that it happened in a Republican state, in a solid red region of the country, and during an election cycle that delivered the GOP’s first popular vote winner in 20 years.

While Trump turned the Kansas map deeper red, those advances were offset by a few large counties that converted blue.

The Trump effect in Kansas thus reveals a familiar paradox. Trump energizes Republicans while simultaneously mobilizing Democrats.

The effect cuts in both directions.

• Mark Joslyn is a professor of political science at the University of Kansas.