For decades, there has been a general understanding of the coalitions that define the two parties.

The wealthy and college educated leaned Republican, while the less educated, working class and the disadvantaged supported Democrats.

We knew generally what to expect from both sides.

No longer.

The college educated and affluent are drifting leftward. The working class and those without a college degree are moving to the right.

The so-called “diploma divide” has arrived.

The divide first took shape in 2008, when Barack Obama carried college-educated voters and John McCain won those without a college degree.

Since then, the split has expanded considerably.

College-educated whites now comprise a plurality of the Democratic coalition, reaching nearly 40% of the total Democratic presidential vote.

A majority of the college educated, in fact, voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 while a majority without a college degree voted for Donald Trump.

And, for the first time since the advent of reliable exit polling, the Republican candidate won the lowest income group, under $50,000, while the Democrat secured the highest income category, $100,000-plus.

This helps explain why Joe Biden pushed so hard for student loan forgiveness and approved tax credits for electric vehicles.

It also sheds light on Donald Trump’s support for tariffs and a no tax on tips plan.

As new coalition members join, they shape the parties’ cultures, which are showcased every four years during party conventions.

In 2020, Democrats chose Pulitzer Prize-winning author and presidential historian Jon Meacham and former Surgeon General Vivek Murthy to deliver remarks on the final evening of their convention.

By contrast, Republicans featured Franklin Graham, son of Christian evangelist Billy Graham, and Dana White CEO of the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

White was spotlighted again in 2024, this time presenting Trump to convention delegates. Former professional wrestler Hulk Hogan and Teamster president Sean O’ Brien also received coveted prime-time slots.

The party transformations have impacted Kansans as well.

Wealthy and well-educated Kansas counties now represent opportunities for Democrats.

Johnson County, a historical stronghold of Republicans, is experiencing a noticeable shift toward Democrats.

In 2008, Obama secured nearly 45% of the county’s vote, reaching the highest percentage by a Democrat since FDR in 1932.

Hillary Clinton nearly equaled that percentage in 2016, and Biden surpassed it with 52.7% in 2020, marking the first time a Democrat had won Johnson County in over 100 years.

Kamala Harris then improved on Biden’s percentage and won Riley County as well.

Less affluent and less educated counties are moving rightward.

Crawford County for example in the southeast quadrant voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988, Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. And then in 2008, Crawford joined Douglas and Wyandotte as the only counties to support Obama.

But over the last four presidential contests, Crawford turned red.

Hillary Clinton’s 35% was the worst performance by a Democrat since 1924; Biden and Harris managed only a modest uptick.

These changes can be confusing and frustrating for many longtime party loyalists. After all, the parties they had once aligned with and cast their votes for have effectively vanished.

It’s time to reset our expectations.

— Mark Joslyn is a professor of political science at the University of Kansas.