The race to replace outgoing Gov. Laura Kelly is too close to call, with both Republican Ty Masterson and Democrat Cindy Holscher telling their supporters to hold tight.

“We are confident that once all the votes are counted, we will win,” Holscher said at a party in Johnson County.

Holscher ran a campaign focused on taking on corporate interests, fully funding special education and legalizing recreational marijuana.

Masterson told his supporters to head home from Wichita, too.

“I just wanted to close this down tonight,” Masterson said, “because there’s obviously not going to be either a concession speech or a victory speech tonight.”

The election could be decided by mailed ballots that are postmarked by Election Day and will be counted if they arrive within three days after the election. Lawmakers tried to eliminate that three-day grace period, but the new law was blocked by the courts and the grace period remains in place.

With the tight margin in the race showing Holscher leading by less than 1% of the vote, an audit is expected to be called.

“I only have to win like 55% of whatever’s left,” Masterson said. “It’s going to be razor thin, right?”

Masterson campaigned on lowering property taxes, reducing government spending and improving literacy in public schools. He proposed limiting annual growth in taxable property values to 3% or less and has pointed to Mississippi’s approach to reading instruction as a model for Kansas.

The Andover Republican has served in the Kansas Legislature for more than two decades and has been Senate president since 2021. If Masterson wins when the votes are tallied, his election gives Republicans an opportunity to pursue their legislative agenda with a governor from their own party.

Holscher agrees with Masterson on the tightness of the race, but expects a different result.

“We feel really, really good about where we are right now,” Holscher told supporters.

Holscher, an Overland Park Democrat, hopes to take office in January after serving in the Kansas Legislature since 2017. If she wins it marks another setback for Republicans, who have been unable to reclaim the governor’s office since Sam Brownback won reelection in 2014.

Campaign spending

Both candidates raised millions during the general election. Holscher raised $2.34 million from late July through Oct. 22, nearly three times what she raised during the Democratic primary. Masterson raised roughly $2 million during the same period.

The race also drew significant outside spending. The Sunflower State Journal reported that national Republican groups spent more than $10 million, much of it on negative advertising targeting Holscher. While the Democratic Governor’s Association spent nearly $4 million in support of Holscher.

Looking forward

Whoever ends up being declared the winner will succeed Kelly, who won election in 2018 and reelection in 2022. Kelly was prevented by term limits from seeking a third term.

The winner will take office in January and faces a Republican-controlled Legislature, where the GOP holds a supermajority in the senate. Democrats said they picked up enough seats in Tuesday’s election to break the Supermajority in the House.

That political landscape could shape how much of the next governor’s agenda will be passed into law.

• Zach Boblitt is a journalist with the Kansas News Service.