photo by: Josie Heimsoth/Journal-World

Lawrence school board members meet on Monday, Oct. 26, 2026.

The Lawrence school district’s enrollment is projected to decrease by approximately 245 students by the 2030-2031 school year, compared to data from last school year.

According to a March report, the district is projected to have between 9,000 and 9,100 students — excluding virtual school students — enrolled in Lawrence Public Schools in five years. Elementary enrollment is anticipated to remain relatively stable, while middle and high school enrollment will decline as smaller cohorts move through schools.

The report — completed by consulting firm RSP & Associates Inc. — said many schools are operating within their capacity ranges, and despite the projections, some elementary schools have considerably more students than others relative to their capacity.

Langston Hughes and Sunflower elementary schools were identified as the largest elementary schools, and they are closest to operational capacity. The district has already been planning for an expansion at Langston Hughes to address the issue, as the Journal-World reported. The project is expected to be completed in summer 2027.

In contrast, Woodlawn and Hillcrest elementary schools have lower enrollment relative to their capacity. This could create an opportunity to redistribute enrollment if the district decides to do so.

While the report provided information that could help inform future facility decisions, it does not recommend a specific school to close, identify a site for a new school or conclude that the district should build another facility.

photo by: RSP & Associates, Inc.

The past and future enrollment projections for the Lawrence school district.

The report comes as the Lawrence school district’s enrollment has been steadily declining for many years.

As the Journal-World reported, the district’s enrollment fell from 11,020 students in the 2021-2022 school year to 10,148 in 2025-2026, a decrease of 872 students. Enrollment has declined each year during that period, falling to 10,764 in 2022-2023, 10,619 in 2023-2024 and 10,358 in 2024-2025 before reaching its most recent total.

The March report was shared with board members ahead of their Monday meeting, and the board unanimously approved a contract with RSP & Associates to provide an enrollment analysis of the school district, totaling a cost of $24,500. The item appeared on the board members’ consent agenda, where all items are typically adopted in one motion.

RSP & Associates will prepare a report during the 2026-2027 school year, projecting the enrollment at each school and facility over the next five to 10 years. It will also detail the housing and development in the surrounding community.

In addition, RSP & Associates will prepare an address locator – a tool where anyone can enter an address within the school district and learn which school boundaries it falls under.

Following the vote on the consent agenda, board member Matt Lancaster said that while he initially wasn’t supportive of the larger review to be completed by RSP & Associates this school year, he realized there were some gaps that weren’t being accounted for in the March report.

“(There are) things that are going on in various parts of our city, to the west and the south, and some pretty big changes that are really hard to make sense of,” Lancaster said.

“I think it is a good way to make sure that we know what we need to be planning for five to 10 years out, not just enrollment wise, but facility wise … to make sure that everybody is supported and represented,” Lancaster said.

photo by: RSP & Associates, Inc.

A K-12 student heat density map for the Lawrence school district based on data from the 2025-2026 school year.

Despite Lawrence’s overall population increasing, residential construction has slowed and it may also be contributing to declining enrollment.

The district’s student yield rates — which is the number of students associated with each 100 housing units — have also declined. In 2025-2026, the district averaged 26 students per 100 single-family homes, down from 33 a decade earlier. For multi-family housing, the rate fell from 15 to 14 students per 100 units.

The annual live births in Douglas County decreased from 1,327 in 2015 to 970 in 2024, according to the recent report. The county’s population of children younger than five years old also declined by over 2,000 children over the past decade, with 4,293 in 2024 and 6,368 in 2014.

The report has also identified more than 3,500 potential housing units over the next decade. None of those units of identified housing fall within the boundaries of Cordley, Deerfield and Woodlawn elementary schools. Langston Hughes and Prairie Park elementary schools contain the largest number of potential units within their boundaries.

These developments don’t necessarily mean there will be enrollment growth. The results of the new developments will depend on when each of the projects are completed, housing affordability, the types of homes built and the demographics of the people who move into them.

The enrollment analysis will be completed in Feb. 2027. The address locator is anticipated to be available by June 2027, according to the district’s contract with RSP & Associates.

IN OTHER BUSINESS, BOARD MEMBERS:

• Heard a presentation about the district’s special education department, which provided an overview of services, student demographics and performance data. District staff also outlined some priorities for the 2026-2027 school year.