Is the United States planning to attack Iran in the near term?

God forbid. Such a decision would exceed even the colossal blunder of intervening in Iraq.

Now – as much as I would have opposed it – I can understand why some analysts might have seriously examined the idea of an Iran campaign four years ago. If the battle phase in Iraq had ended resistance, if sound decision-making had prevailed, if the Iraqis had welcomed freedom, cooperation, democracy and free markets, if terrorists had stayed away and if Baghdad’s neighbors had resisted the temptation to meddle, the United States would have been left with a huge, essentially idle force in and around Iraq.

To wandering eyes, Tehran would have sparkled with opportunity, that is, to quash another noxious regime, the second member of the “axis of evil.”

But that did not happen. Indeed, the U.S.-led intervention in Iraq has turned into exactly what I predicted before the war: a long, deadly, costly affair that practically screams lessons that should have been learned about the need for comprehensive military, economic and political strategizing before and after U.S.-led forces moved in.

Is anyone listening?

Frankly, I wonder as speculation mounts about the possibility of a U.S. attack against Iran. Far too many e-mails stream through my computer proclaiming, “U.S. missile strikes kill 10,000 Iranians,” “Attack against Iran imminent” or other, similar thoughts. And when I read widely circulated intelligence summaries, said to be of Russian origin, that claim the United States is preparing to move militarily against Iran, I worry.

Americans failed to have a sufficient debate about whether intervention in Iraq was warranted. We have similarly neglected to have an adequate national conversation about what to do now that we are mired in Iraq. We cannot afford to repeat those kinds of mistakes in dealing with Iran.

In 2003, I anticipated several scenarios that might result from military action in Iraq, ranging from the positive to the negative. In Iran, I would anticipate only one scenario: the worst case.

Actually, I seriously question how it might happen, even if the United States were to draw the support of Britain and other countries. Washington recently extended tours for U.S. soldiers in Iraq, and its forces already have been stretched almost to the point of transparency worldwide.

Would the United States seek to conduct more than an air war? If so, how? Are we prepared to consider the reimposition of the draft?

Also, there is no guarantee that missile or other strikes would eliminate Iran’s worrisome nuclear program – especially with the recent boast by that country’s president that Tehran has far more nuclear operations than previously known.

Meanwhile, Iranians would not sit quietly and contemplate the devastation. Even in the face of a withering assault, they would retaliate with considerable force, not only against U.S. targets and interests in the Middle East – namely in Iraq and Israel – but globally. There has long been concern about the placement of Iranian operatives in various locations who are simply waiting for the word to unleash havoc.

Even average Iranians, who generally support better relations with the United States and the West, should be expected to reconsider their position and side with Tehran’s government in the event of military action.

And let us not forget how intervention in Iran would play in the rest of the Middle East. Chances are, whatever support the United States has left in most of the region would collapse. The threat of terrorism would increase immeasurably.

Similarly, Iranian leaders could feel inspired to new excesses. Remember, they do not embrace the same attitude toward dying for a just cause that we do. To us, it is a matter of sacrifice; to them, it amounts to fulfillment. If we attacked Iran, we would extend to its leaders and their followers the ultimate promise.

Americans should relegate any talk about attacking Iran imminently to the realm of fantasy, maintain economic and diplomatic pressure on Tehran, and stay focused on existing crises in Afghanistan and Iraq.