Top managers at Lawrence City Hall on Thursday sought to reassure the community that questions surrounding the city’s sewer system aren’t fatal to future growth.

The city manager’s office has released a detailed memo to respond to concerns from the development community that the city badly missed on population projections for the city’s northwest area.

Debbie Van Saun, the assistant city manager overseeing many of the sewer issues, said there’s plenty of evidence in the city’s 2003 Wastewater Master Plan that shows leaders have been planning for growth.

The report calls for the city to grow from 80,000 people in 2003 to 150,000 in 2025.

“We’re definitely planning on the numbers to get bigger,” Van Saun said. “We have planned for a pretty healthy increase.”

The memo eased the concerns of some, but not all.

“One of the things that I’ve seen from staff is that they have a real understanding of this,” City Commissioner Mike Amyx said. “This hasn’t slipped through the cracks. They’re staying on top of it. There probably are some glitches in our plan, but everyone of those glitches can be fixed.”

If the system needs to be fixed, city staff members have said some previously planned projects – probably more than $1 million worth – would have to be done one or two years sooner than expected.

• City Manager’s Memorandum on the 2003 Wastewater Master Plan
• Input sought on pricey sewer project (11-03-05)
• Builders: Planning mistake will cost (10-23-05)
• City seeks input on proposed sewer plant (10-21-05)
• Sewer concerns back up projects (10-13-05)

City Commissioner Sue Hack, though, said she was still concerned the city’s population projections weren’t adequate.

“If you were going to summarize the situation, we still have more people in that (northwest) area than we projected to have there,” Hack said. “And that is still creating a lot of questions.”

In late September, city planners began telling developers that projects that hadn’t yet received final approval would not be approved for the northwest area until more studies on the area’s sewer system were completed.

Some of those studies will be completed by the end of the year. Others will be completed in the spring. Developers have expressed concern that if proposed projects aren’t allowed to move forward it will create a future shortage of building lots, which will drive up home prices and cost the city construction-related jobs.

Projection problems

City officials became concerned about sewer capacity in the northwest in September when planners determined some parts of the area already had as many people as was projected for 2010.

Developers and private engineers, upon reviewing the master sewer plan, said the population projections used in the plan were extremely low. The plan used population projections – developed by the city’s planning department – that called for six people per acre in many parts of the northwest area. Developers said past developments have proved the density numbers should be at least twice as high.

The memo conceded the 2003 sewer plan used six people per acre as the average for a medium density single-family neighborhood. The memo also stated that was much different from the number used in the 1995 plan. That plan used 12 people per acre.

But Van Saun said there was good reason for the difference. The 1995 plan was studying a much smaller growth area, and it assumed that the entire growth area would be fully developed by 2020. The 2003 report studied a much larger growth area, and assumed the area would not be fully developed by 2025.

“If you are just looking at these statistics, you are not seeing the full picture,” Van Saun said. “It goes back to you cannot compare apples to oranges.”

But the explanation didn’t satisfy all commissioners.

“I’m still struggling with these population projections, and I believe those projections are the crux of the problem,” Hack said. “I still wonder why we didn’t project a full build-out in more of these areas.”

“It is a heck of a difference,” City Commissioner David Schauner said of the 2003 and 1995 plans. “I think there has not been enough consistent updating of our population projections. Somewhere along the way, we started using the wrong numbers.”

Bigger concerns

Lavern Squier, president of the Lawrence Chamber of Commerce, said he’s still uneasy about the population projections. He wants city leaders to take an even broader look at the city’s sewer issue. The 2003 plan is the same document that has led city leaders to believe that they can wait until 2011 to complete a new $76 million sewer treatment plant on the Wakarusa River.

“Those same population projections are telling us that we can make it to 2011,” Squier said. “I think city commissioners are going to have to make a decision whether they want to keep to that 2011 date or try to move it ahead.”

City staff members have said they have no indication the projections for the new plant are flawed. But staff members have said if the project runs over schedule, the city could have difficulty providing sewer service to all new growth.

The city memo also attempted to ease concerns that building will come to an immediate halt in the northwest area. Van Saun said there are nearly 500 lots approved prior to the sewer issues being discovered. Those lots can still receive a building permit. That represents about a one-year supply for the city.

But Hack said the situation was still serious for the city’s construction industry.

“When those lots are gone and we haven’t replaced them, we’re in trouble,” Hack said. “I’m not saying we’re putting people out of work tomorrow, but if we don’t have any lots in the future, there won’t be any building jobs. It is pretty simple.”