Chicago ? Boeing Co.’s fourth-quarter earnings sank 84 percent but the firm impressed Wall Street on Wednesday by forecasting a big jump in commercial airplane deliveries next year, reflecting a resurgent market and its improved prospects against Airbus.

Heavy charges for ending production of its 717 jet and writing off a controversial lost Pentagon contract for air tankers contributed to the drop to $186 million profit from $1.13 billion a year earlier, when a billion-dollar tax refund inflated results. Boeing also lost money from its commercial airplane business in the quarter on lower sales and plane deliveries.

But analysts and investors cheered the company’s outlook for a long-awaited upturn in the airplane market and the estimate it would deliver between 375 and 385 airplanes in 2006 — up as much as 20 percent from this year’s projected 320.

Adding to the optimism is the recent flurry of orders for Boeing’s new 787 jet, which is due to go into service in 2008. Chinese airlines committed last Friday to 60 orders for the fuel-efficient jetliner, formerly dubbed the 7E7, giving the company 186 orders and commitments.

Boeing shares, which rose 23 percent last year, increased $1.19, or 2.3 percent, to close at $52.23 on the New York Stock Exchange.

A comeback in commercial airplanes and a continuing strong defense business would again give the company a strong 1-2 punch after all the post-2001 upheaval in aviation. Defense generated $30 billion in sales for the year, increasing its share of company revenue to 57 percent.

Analyst Richard Aboulafia of the Fairfax, Va.-based Teal Group said the results underscore that Chicago-based Boeing has endured two years of turmoil and turnover yet remained in top financial shape.

“Despite the ethics scandal, the management troubles and the lost opportunity of the tanker, they’re still in very good shape with what matters to Wall Street: booking business and cash flow,” he said.

Boeing CEO Harry Stonecipher said the improved outlook for airplanes can be attributed largely to increased demand for Boeing’s 737s and 777s, with the 787 also drumming up more interest.

A new Boeing 717 aircraft was built on a moving assembly line in 2000 at Boeing's Long Beach, Calif., plant. Boeing Co. reported Wednesday that fourth-quarter profits plunged 84 percent, weighed down by charges for shutting down production of its 717 jet and losing out on an aerial tanker contract with the Pentagon.

“Oil prices remain very high, but we are seeing increasing interest from many airlines to order new efficient airplanes to meet their needs for capacity growth and also improve the efficiency of using the oil that’s becoming so expensive,” he said.

Both Boeing and France’s Airbus, which anticipates more than 400 airplane deliveries in 2006, now count on seeing a big payoff from an airline industry comeback that saw global passenger traffic rise nearly 10 percent last year.

Aboulafia, however, questioned whether the anticipated jump in deliveries was overly optimistic, saying, “The notion that all these ailing airlines are going to order 800 jets in ’06 is unbelievable.”

Morningstar analyst Chris Lozier said Boeing appeared to be on the rebound after losing ground to Airbus, which surpassed it in deliveries in 2003 and 2004.

“For a while it looked like Airbus was going to continue to take market share, but now it looks like Boeing is going to stand its ground,” he said.

Net earnings for Boeing’s October-through-December period amounted to $186 million, or 23 cents per share, down from $1.13 billion, or $1.40 per share, a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by First Call had estimated earnings at 5 cents per share.

Revenues increased 1 percent to $13.3 billion from $13.2 billion.

Stonecipher said he thought there would be a tanker deal to replace the $23 billion contract the Pentagon scrapped last year with Boeing. He said that while tightening military spending in Washington is likely to slow the company’s 10 percent annual growth rate in defense revenues, “we think the impact will be pretty minimal until we get into ’07.”

The company estimated 2005 earnings at between $2.40 per share and $2.60 per share, in line with analysts’ expectations of $2.54 per share. Its forecast of $58 billion was slightly above the Wall Street estimate of $57.8 billion.

Boeing’s latest quarter showed continued losses in the weak commercial space market. Analyst J.B. Groh of D.A. Davidson also said Boeing soon would face significant new costs if it has to shut down its slumping 767 line. The company is expected to decide by mid-year.

“If they don’t get a handful more orders in the next six months, that line will go away,” he said. “You can’t just keep a line open when you don’t have any orders.”

For the full year, net income was $1.87 billion, or $2.30 per share. That more than doubled the net earnings of $718 million, or 89 cents per share, in 2003 when Boeing took big hits from slumps in both the airline industry and its rocket and launch businesses. Revenue climbed 4 percent to $52.5 billion from $50.3 billion.