Chatter about a possible Lawrence Costco grows; a closer look at how developers hope retail grows near Rock Chalk Park

In this June 4, 2014 photo, shoppers push carts out of a Costco in Plano, Texas.

My radar is up and my wallet is locked up via log chain: I’m hearing multiple accounts that a Costco may be coming to Lawrence.

Multiple readers are telling me that employees at the Costco in Johnson County are talking about a pending announcement of a Costco store in Lawrence. I called the Costco store in Lenexa and simply asked the front desk employee whether the company is opening a store in Lawrence. She said: “I think we are, but there aren’t any dates yet.”

UPDATE: Conversations this afternoon have left me with more questions about the possibility of a Costco coming to Lawrence. There’s no doubt that there is such talk among some Costco employees, but I talked with a source who has good knowledge of Costco’s store opening process. That source told me Lawrence only recently has cracked the top 100 markets on Costco’s expansion list. The store opens only 15 to 30 locations a year, with some of them being overseas. I’m not sure that math works out to a Costco anytime soon for Lawrence, but for Costco fans it is positive that Lawrence has started to move up the list.

So don’t take this news to the bank quite yet. I’ve seen no plans filed at City Hall for a Costco, and thus far there is no official confirmation from the giant retailer. But I wanted to pass along the speculation because it seems that the talk is becoming much more open in the Johnson County store. I’ve had several people ask me matter of factly about where Costco has decided to locate in Lawrence. I wanted to let people know that nothing has reached that stage. But I also wanted to share the scuttlebutt on the street, and this is the type that gets folks excited. About the only thing better than a Costco rumor is a sale on 35 gallons of milk.

If you didn’t get that reference, you must not be familiar with Costco, which leads me to ask: “Where did you park your spaceship?” Costco is is a major discount wholesale club, where you pay an annual membership fee to shop for items that are sold at a discount greater than what you normally would find elsewhere. Often, though, you have to buy the items in bulk. (Should I be worried that this rumor of a Costco has caused a certain someone in my family to start tuning up our forklift, and measuring how high pallets can be stacked in the spare bedroom?) Costco’s main competitor is Sam’s Club, the warehouse chain operated by Wal-Mart. Costco sells a large variety of products, including groceries, appliances, automotive supplies, tires, toys, hardware, sporting goods, jewelry, clothing, health and beauty and several other categories too.

In this June 4, 2014 photo, shoppers push carts out of a Costco in Plano, Texas.

As far as where Costco may locate in Lawrence, that would just be a guess at the moment. It would seem the two leading locations would be south Iowa Street or the undeveloped area near Rock Chalk Park in northwest Lawrence.

I’ve received no indications that Costco is in the mix for the proposed retail project just southeast of the SLT and Iowa Street interchange. That 250,000 square-foot project is up for zoning approval in December by the Lawrence City Commission.

The Rock Chalk Park site — the proposed shopping center is called Mercato — has the necessary zoning in place and has the space to accommodate a Costco store. But I chatted briefly with one of the commercial real estate agents that’s marketing the property, and I didn’t get a sense that a deal was imminent there.

“We would love to have them,” said Brandon Buckley, an agent with Kansas City-based Lane4 Property Group. “It would be a perfect anchor out there. We’ve reached out to a lot of different potential anchor tenants.”

Costco certainly has been one of them. If you look at the plans for the Mercato development it even shows a 140,000 square-foot building — which is the average size of a Costco — and the building has the signature diagonal corner that is common to Costco stores. Also note the little gas station out in the parking lot of the 140,000 square-foot building. That’s also another hallmark of Costco.

Costco would be a huge win for the Mercato development. The area has struggled to attract a single retailer since becoming zoned for commercial uses several years ago. The site has been losing out to south Iowa Street, with Menards and Dick’s Sporting Goods being two of the larger examples that recently chose south Lawrence over Mercato. But if Costco were to locate at the site, it would generate the type of traffic that would likely cause other retailers to follow.

“All the nationals like to go together,” said Buckley, who said interest in Mercato has picked up as traffic volumes have increased due to the Rock Chalk Park recreation facilities now being open. “We need a catalyst like that out there.”

As the plans above show, the area is designed to house about 15 major retailers, plus there are other parcels that could house a half-dozen restaurants or other commercial developments. It could be the type of development that would shift momentum away from the south Iowa Street corridor. One of the debates that is brewing in some City Hall circles is whether Lawrence’s retail scene is becoming too reliant on south Iowa Street, much like Topeka has become reliant on Wanamaker Road.

A big question in all of this, though, is whether Costco will come to town without any financial incentives from the city. It would be an interesting debate to watch. Costco is the type of retailer that certainly would bring new sales tax dollars into the community. Depending on where it was located, it could easily draw shoppers from the Topeka area. But many on the current commission ran against the idea of incentives. Whether they would offer incentives to a chain retailer — even a large one that could draw outside dollars — is uncertain.

But, we’re starting to get ahead of ourselves here. I can’t emphasize enough that there is a lot that is uncertain at the moment. The two biggest unknowns are: We don’t know if Costco has decided to enter the market, and we don’t know where it would locate in Lawrence.

The talk by employees, however, is interesting. I think the talk is a good indication that Costco indeed is giving Lawrence a serious look. But sometimes employees don’t always have all the details correct about what’s going on within their companies. As one commercial real estate person told me, it is uncommon for store employees to know the store opening plans for their company. We’ll have to wait and see how this one plays out. I’ll keep my ears open for more details.