TV sets, as much football programs, fueling Big 12 expansion talk

Let’s face it. By now we all know that any talk about Big 12 expansion or even conference realignment as a whole throughout college athletics is focused on one thing — football.

Taking that one step further, however, leads to the conclusion that, really, this whole thing is about television dollars and a relationship that can be formed between a conference and its television partners.

If it weren’t, and it were truly just about football, a program like Boise State would be a red-hot commodity, drawing attention from at least the Big 12 and Pac-12. But because Boise and the surrounding areas don’t deliver a ton of TV sets, the Broncos can’t get so much as a sniff from anyone.

As it stands today in its 10-team form, the Big 12 Conference already has a pretty good television deal. Last year, the 10 members split more than $250 million in TV dollars, giving each athletic department a pretty nice chunk of change. And that number is expected to rise steadily through the end of the grant of rights agreement in 2025.

So when it comes to the idea of the Big 12 expanding — and whether it should or shouldn’t — the argument goes something like this: No way are we going to add a couple of teams and split the pie 12 ways instead of 10. That just doesn’t make good business sense.

Well, neither does self-destruction or, worse yet, extinction.

Reports have indicated that the Big 12’s TV partners have said that they would be willing to renegotiate their current deals in the event of expansion. But, as common sense would suggest, the more attractive the addition, the more likely the dollar amount is to go up. And, right now, there just aren’t enough ultra-attractive schools out there that would command a big increase in television dollars.

That’s why, if it’s me in charge, I look seriously at becoming the first to jump to 16 instead of just getting back to 12. We’ve seen in the past that 12 is vulnerable and making the jump all the way to 16 would show, at least on some level, that the Big 12 learned from its mistakes and would like to move forward as a more aggressive and pro-active conference.

With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the markets of the handful of schools that seem to come up most often in the chatter about Big 12 expansion. All population numbers are courtesy of the 2010 Census.

BYU


One of the most popular picks to be included if the Big 12 were to go from 10 to 12, BYU brings a national following because of its Mormon roots, but also just the 33rd best television market (Salt Lake City) according to stationindex.com. Still, with interest in the Cougars spreading from coast to coast and the opportunity to jump back into the Rocky Mountain region, it’s easy to see why BYU makes sense. Enrollment: 29,672. Population: No. 124, 186,440

Cincinnati

Believe it or not, Cincinnati actually ranks below Salt Lake City at 34th nationally. The Bearcats bring respectable football of late, a historically solid basketball program and inroads into a strong football recruiting base. Beyond that, the geographic advantage that comes with being close to West Virginia (308 miles) also helps Cincy’s cause. Enrollment: 43,691. Population: No. 65, 296,943

Memphis

Memphis is interesting in so many ways — solid basketball, football program on the rise, good geographic location, high-dollar support from FedEx — but only brings the 48th best television market to the table. That, along with the loss of red hot football coach Justin Fuente following the 2015 season (Virginia Tech), could put the Tigers on the outside looking in. But it sure sounds like Memphis is still a very viable option. Enrollment: 20,585. Population: No. 45, 646,889.

Colorado State

I spent some of my time growing up in Fort Collins and I’ll admit it; I just don’t see the Rams being the Big 12’s choice. For one, Colorado as a whole is just not that big of a college sports state and, with so many other things to do in terms of outdoor recreational activities, I’m not sure that’s changing any time soon. The talk is that CSU would deliver the Denver market, which comes in at 18th on the stationindex.com list. And it certainly wouldn’t hurt. But, even when Colorado was in the Big 12 the Buffs didn’t really deliver Denver. Colorado State is in a great college town and has made some serious strides to improve its facilities, including breaking ground on a brand new football stadium. It wouldn’t be the worst pick, but if TVs and travel partners for WVU are important, I can’t see the Big 12 going this direction. Enrollment: 32,236. Population: No. 159, 143,986.

Central Florida

UCF may not be the sexiest addition on paper, but it does get the Big 12 into Florida, which both puts the conference in one of the country’s biggest states population wise and most fertile football recruiting grounds, and infiltrates ACC and SEC territory. It also brings big time eyeballs and bodies. The Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne market ranks 19th nationally. Making the move into Orlando would be more of a bet on UCF’s future than a sure-fire victory today. Of course, with this round, are there any sure-fire victories? Enrollment: 60,767. Population: No. 73, 238,300.

Houston

If it’s bodies and televisions you want, Houston is an absolute home run. The issue here is that it’s known largely as a commuter school — an image it is trying to change — and it resides in Texas, where the folks in Austin who bleed burnt orange already are saying their beloved Longhorns carry enough of the Houston market. That may be true. But you can’t argue with Houston’s size and recent show of serious commitment to football. The Houston market ranks 10th on the stationindex list and, obviously, the school would be a fit geographically. Enrollment: 42,704. Population: No. 4, 2.1 million.

SMU


SMU is a little like Houston without all of the enormous upside. The Mustangs have some decent history in both basketball and football and appear to be serious about getting their football program going strong again. The problem is, SMU resides in Dallas, which is home to the Big 12 headquarters, and while that might seem like a big time advantage, it actually hurts SMU because the Big 12 does not gain much by furthering its presence in a city it already calls home. Enrollment: 11,643. Population: No. 9, 1.2 million.

UConn

While the Huskies deliver a couple of things that are important in this whole deal — expansion east, a big name and recent football success — the biggest thing they claim to deliver might be a reach. New York City. There’s no denying that the Big Apple has its share of UConn backers. And, with Storrs being just 140 miles northeast of NYC, the proximity claim is legit. But let’s be realistic here. Even if there’s something to be gained in NYC by adding UConn, it’s not as if the Huskies can claim that they’re bringing the entire New York market with them. That’s what makes this one tough to gauge. Heck, Boston, which sits just 85 miles northeast of Storrs, is closer than NYC but you don’t hear a ton of talk about a UConn addition delivering Bean town. There’s some intrigue here. And getting into the New England areas is not the worst idea (even if it is still 524 miles from West Virginia). But UConn is far from a slam dunk. Enrollment: 31,119. Population: If we’re counting New York, it ranks No. 1 at 8.2 million. Boston ranks No. 24 at 617,594. But I’m not sure UConn truly delivers either.

South Florida

USF is in a great city and is a school on the rise, but it would likely only gain consideration if the Big 12 were to go beyond 12. Would you believe, though, that Wichita actually is larger than Tampa? (Remember that if/when we ever get to the point where we’re talking about where KU might land in a world where the Big 12 no longer exists). That said, according to stationindex.com, Tampa is a far better television market, ranking 13th in the country. Pairing South Florida with Central Florida (the 13th and 19th best TV markets in the country) might give you a decent shot at laying a serious claim to TV sets in Florida and, from there, anything is possible, especially when you consider what joining a Power 5 Conference could do for the growth of both schools. Enrollment: 48,793. Population: No. 53, 335,709.

For comparison’s sake, the average enrollment of the Big 12’s 10 current schools is 28,554, with Texas (50,950) and Texas Tech (35,893) holding down the top end and TCU (10,323) and Baylor (16,787) sitting at the bottom. Kansas (27,983) and Kansas State (24,766) are right around the average and in the middle of the pack.

It should be noted, however, that nearly every Big 12 school resides in a true college town, which merely adds another wrinkle to the idea of expansion. Would the conference want to keep with that and expand only into other smaller, college towns or is now the time to branch out and start bringing some major metropolitan areas into the conference?

Yet again, the answer likely comes down to television dollars and little else.