Stock watch: Josh Jackson’s shooting could impact draft position
Even the greatest players on the planet have their flaws. That’s what makes debating one man’s on-the-court value versus another’s a fundamental element of basketball discussions. For star Kansas freshman Josh Jackson, his strengths are numerous and his imperfections, while scarce, are obvious.
Jackson, who turns 20 in February, is a 6-foot-8 perimeter player with a 6-9.75 wingspan, who can handle the ball, attack the glass, see the floor like a point guard and play — both offensively and defensively — in the stratosphere above the rim. Throw in a competitive streak coaches love and you’re looking at a Jayhawk bound to be taken near the top of the 2017 NBA Draft.
In fact, Jackson might be considered a lock for the No. 1 spot after one season at KU if it wasn’t for his glaring deficiency: shooting.
As the game of basketball keeps evolving, NBA franchises are placing increasing value in the power of the 3-pointer. In his 18 appearances in a Kansas uniform, shooting from behind a 3-point arc that stretches out 20 feet and 9 inches from the basket — closer than The Association’s, semi-circle, which stretches out to 22 feet in the corners and 23-9 up top — Jackson has connected on only 23.7% of his attempts.
KU coach Bill Self didn’t recruit Jackson for his shooting, so it’s not an emphasis for his stud freshman. Plus, the Detroit native is in a bit of a 3-point funk. Jackson very well could start connecting in KU’s upcoming games against Texas and West Virginia and see his season percentage begin building toward a more respectable number, but he has only made four 3’s in the previous 11 games — a stretch in which the freshman is shooting 19% from deep. He’s 2-for-12 (16.7%) in his past five outings.
photo by: Nick Krug
Kansas guard Josh Jackson (11) puts up a three over Long Beach State forward LaRond Williams (22) during the first half, Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2016 at Allen Fieldhouse.
It’s at the free-throw line where Jackson’s shooting struggles have been more problematic. Often, Jackson is too long and powerful for a defender trying to stay in front of him or compete for a rebound, so he draws a lot of fouls. But he has only capitalized on 57% of his free-throw tries.
Jackson’s inconsistencies as a shooter at the college level likely are making a moderate impact on his NBA draft stock — though because he’s so talented and shooting is a skill that can be refined, it’s borderline unfeasible to see him dropping out of the top five. So when we say Jackson’s stock is taking a hit, it’s all relative to the top few spots in the draft.
Back in October, before Jackson made his Kansas debut, in mock drafts posted by Draft Express, Bleacher Report, NBADraft.net, Hoops Hype and Fan Sided, his average position was 2nd overall. Two-and-a-half months later, Jackson’s position has slipped in each site’s projections and he averages out as the 4th pick.
If you’re looking for potential reasons for the slight dip, Jackson’s 9-for-38 3-point shooting (23.7%) and 53-for-93 success rate (57%) at the free-throw line stand out.
In a draft that will heavily feature freshmen and perimeter prospects at the very top, Jackson’s shooting numbers lag behind those being posted by some of his competition, such as Washington’s Markelle Fultz, UCLA’s Lonzo Ball and North Carolina State’s Dennis Smith Jr. — all point guards.
| Name | Pos. | Ht. | School | Games | 3 pt. made-att. (pct.) | FT made-att. (pct.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jackson | SG/SF | 6-8 | Kansas | 18 | 9-for-38 (23.7%) | 53-for-93 (57%) |
| Markelle Fultz | PG | 6-4 | Washington | 17 | 31-for-75 (41.3%) | 73-for-109 (67%) |
| Lonzo Ball | PG | 6-6 | UCLA | 19 | 46-for-107 (43%) | 40-for-59 (67.8%) |
| Dennis Smith Jr. | PG | 6-3 | N.C. State | 19 | 34-for-92 (37%) | 94-for-127 (74%) |
| Jayson Tatum | SF | 6-8 | Duke | 10 | 11-for-36 (30.6%) | 47-for-55 (85.5%) |
| De’Aaron Fox | PG | 6-4 | Kentucky | 18 | 5-for-37 (13.5%) | 74-for-105 (70.5%) |
| Malik Monk | PG/SG | 6-4 | Kentucky | 18 | 54-for-133 (40.6%) | 55-for-66 (83.3%) |
Questions about Jackson’s shot and form have existed since he emerged as a star recruit in the prep ranks, so this isn’t necessarily unexpected. What’s more, Jackson still remains in great standing in the minds of scouts and executives in the NBA.
How many college basketball players would love to be in Jackson’s position right now? He’s got two-plus more months of games and plenty of pre-draft workouts and interviews to go through before the draft in June. And we won’t even know until after the regular season which teams will be making the picks at the top.
Jackson could very well end up going No. 1, just like former Kansas standouts Andrew Wiggins (2014) and Danny Manning (1988). An improved stroke on that jumper could get him there.