Own a television or computer?

Then you know all about Kentucky freshman John Wall. You’ve seen him blow past defenders, rattle the rim and deliver a devastating array of moves. You’ve heard he might be the best point guard of the past five, 10 or 20 years. You’ve read columns comparing Wall to the legends of the game.

Among the Wall-mania, there hasn’t been much room for national media to discuss other freshmen, namely KU guard Xavier Henry. And perhaps because of this attention vacuum, the Henry-Wall debate seems to have become somewhat of a hot topic among KU fans.

You won’t find any opinions on this blog declaring which frosh guard is better, more productive or more promising. But you will find an in-depth and (hopefully) enlightening comparison of the two players’ young college careers.

* Before we get started, I suggest opening this page in a new tab for reference’s sake. The glossary provided there isn’t completely comprehensive, but it provides some information on per-possession statistics such as ORtg, Reb%, Ast%, etc.

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http://worldonline.media.clients.ellingtoncms.com/img/blogs/entry_img/2009/Dec/17/wallx.jpg

First, let’s look at what both Wall and Henry are known for: offense.

Both players are exceptionally efficient scorers on a per-possession basis, Henry moreso than Wall. According to StatSheet.com, Henry has produced 1.31 points per possession (ORtg). Wall’s ORtg of 1.17 is quite a bit lower, though still far above the national average of about 1.00. What this tells us is that Henry is producing about one-third more points per trip down the floor than an average player, while Wall is creating nearly two-tenths more points than an average player might.

The main reason Henry is so efficient is his remarkable shooting accuracy. The Okla. native is shooting 57 percent on two-point field goal attempts, 53 percent on threes and 82 percent from the free throw line. Using a statistic that factors in all three shot varieties, TS%, Henry is shooting 70.3 percent. Wall is an exceptional two-point shooter (58 percent), above average from three (37 percent) and good from the line (79 percent). Wall’s 63.1 percent TS% is well above the national average of about 54 percent but far worse than Henry’s mark.

A note on the charts: Each chart displays two particular statistics for each player in line chart format. Each data point represents the cumulative value the player had at each point during the season. Excuse the color-coding: Kentucky and Kansas are tough to contrast with all the blue involved. All charts come complements of StatSheet.com.

Henry is also a very prudent ball-handler. The 6-6 freshman has turned the ball over on 17.8 percent of his possessions, which is slightly lower than the 20 percent national average (and exceptional for a freshman who plays such a large role in his team’s offense). Wall has recorded turnovers on 26 percent of his possessions, more than eight percent more often than Henry has.

A look at Wall’s passing statistics explains how his per-possession effectiveness remains so high despite his habit of giving the ball away. Wall has assisted 37.3 percent of his team’s field goals while on the floor, a tremendously high number for a freshman guard, considering 25 percent is a decent number for a point guard. Between guards Tyshawn Taylor, Elijah Johnson and Sherron Collins, there aren’t many assists left for Henry to distribute, but his decent 11.1 percent figure is about average for a scoring small forward.

Looking at the per-possession numbers, Henry looks (quite a bit) better. But there’s a catch: Wall uses a good deal more of Kentucky’s possessions than Henry does Kansas’ trips. Wall’s Poss% is an extremely high 27.2 percent, meaning he uses more than one-fourth of the Wildcats’ possessions while he is on the floor (20 percent is average because five players play at once). Henry uses 23.2 percent of the Jayhawks’ possessions — more than average and the most of any KU starter, but not nearly as many as Wall. As a player’s possession load increases, it generally becomes harder for him to remain efficient. This makes Wall’s tremendous efficiency all the more impressive.

• Here’s a very simple formula I brewed up that I think accounts for activity (possessions used) and efficiency (points-per-possession):

%Poss * PPP = Offense created

Wall

27.0 * 1.172 = 31.644

Henry

23.2 * 1.313 = 30.462

As you can see, it’s a close call as far as offense is concerned.

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Now let’s look at the rest of the game: defense and rebounding.

Neither Wall nor Henry is his team’s principal rebounder, or anything close to it. Kansas has junior center Cole Aldrich and a host of capable forwards to clean the glass. Kentucky has an enormous and talented front line in freshman DeMarcus Cousins and junior Patrick Patterson to do its dirty work.

Henry has a two-inch height advantage on Wall. But you could think of it this way: As a 6-foot-4 point guard, Wall has a greater height advantage on the players he matches up against than Henry, a 6-6 wing, does.

That caveat aside, Henry is the better per-possession rebounder. The Jayhawk freshman has snared 14.9 percent of available rebounds during his time on the floor, which is about average for a wing player. Wall has grabbed 12.7 percent of possible rebounds, a solid total easily explained by his height and leaping ability. Henry’s big advantage on Wall lies on the offensive glass, where he has outrebounded the Kentucky guard by nearly 50 percent. That could have something to do with the fact that Wall shoots more often than Henry, putting himself in worse position to grab rebounds.

Defense is difficult to measure without watching every last play (and then watching each game tape a few times for good measure). From watching every KU game and four Kentucky games, Going Into Overtime’s official stance on the defense of Wall and Henry is that each is adequate but each is very much a freshman. Henry and Wall are both outlandish athletes. Henry is freakishly strong with a solid frame and excellent body composition that allow him to run with guards and battle forwards closer to the hoop. Wall is one of the better jumpers in college basketball and has more than enough lateral speed to play good on-ball defense. Neither is an outstanding defender, however, with Wall in particular the subject of consternation from Kentucky coach John Calipari.

There is one (admittedly rough) way to quantify general defensive contributions. By adding a player’s steal percentage and block percentage, we can get a feel for how frequently that player has negatively impacted the opposing offense. It isn’t perfect and leaves out many facets of defense, but it is interesting to look at. Wall’s steal percentage (4.5) and block percentage (1.6) add up to 6.1 percent of opponents’ possessions interrupted. Henry’s steal percentage (3.6) and block percentage (2.6) add up to 6.2 percent.

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There’s no judgment here, just information.

But by all means, feel free to opine, judge and analyze all you want in the comments.