KU quarterback Jake Heaps has a ‘hot spot’ … and here’s where it is

Heaps by direction. Photo illustration by Janella Williams.

Through five games, what are Kansas quarterback Jake Heaps’ strengths as a passer?

With help from charting data, let’s take a look.

After each game, I’ve made an attempt to chart every play of KU’s football season, which has included direction of passes, pass yardage, formation and other tidbits that can’t be found in the box score.

Let’s start with this: Here’s how well Heaps has thrown by direction of the field:

Heaps by direction. Photo illustration by Janella Williams.

A few caveats before we get too deep into the numbers:

There are about seven passing plays from the Rice game that I didn’t get on tape — six incompletions and one two-yard completion. That’s seven throws out of 149, so our data set isn’t perfect, but it’s still large enough to make general observations about Heaps and his throws.

These are pass yards thrown by Heaps in the air … not the total yardage gained on the play. For instance, if Tony Pierson caught a pass five yards down the field and ran it 72 more, the pass yards on the play is five yards.

• These numbers do not count passes Heaps threw that were incomplete/intercepted because of pass interference or illegal contact penalties, but they do include plays that happened that might have been called back for other reasons (like offensive holding). This increases the sample size we’re drawing from.

• I took out all throws that I labeled as “throwaways” in my charting.

As a right-handed quarterback, Heaps has definitely favored throwing to the right side, as more than 42 percent of his charted throws went that direction.

It’s also the side where KU has been the least successful in the passing game. Heaps’ 4.5 yards per attempt on those throws is much lower than that on the other two sides.

Heaps’ “hot spot” appears to be the middle, where he’s thrown three of his touchdowns and averaged 9.4 yards per attempt. It helps that Tony Pierson’s 77-yard receiving TD against Rice was a throw in that area, but Heaps’ numbers still would be better in that section even without that play.

Let’s look at Heaps’ throws by distance now:

Heaps by distance. Photo illustration by Janella Williams.

Heaps has been accurate behind the line of scrimmage (88 percent), but those plays have been the least successful in terms of yards per attempt. Long throws also have been risky for Heaps, as KU is averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt on those 24 throws with two interceptions.

Heaps’ strong suit appears to be the intermediate routes, and especially those that require throws 10-19 yards downfield. In that area, Heaps has thrown three TDs in 22 attempts while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.

Finally, let’s see how Heaps throws by distance and direction:

Heaps by distance and direction. Photo illustration by Janella Williams.

This only confirms what we’ve talked about above. Heaps is throwing more frequently to the right in both short and intermediate passes, despite the fact that KU’s yards-per-attempt are poor in those areas.

Heaps’ best passing numbers are coming in the middle of the field, with his most success coming in the center of the tic-tac-toe. Notice also that three of his five passing TDs were in that area as well.

I wanted to give you a look at one last chart. This shows the distances Heaps passes have been going, then compares that to the 2012 NCAA averages for quarterbacks.

Jake Heaps compared to NCAA averages

If you look at the far-right column, you can see KU’s throwing habits with Heaps. For those saying KU should throw more deep balls … the Jayhawks actually are above the NCAA average when throwing passes over 35 yards, and that’s without much success.

Also, KU has thrown a high number of passes behind the line of scrimmage compared to the national average, and while the Jayhawks are completing an OK percentage, those plays haven’t been particularly explosive (5.3 yards per attempt).

The sweet spot once again (in a small sample size) for Heaps has been passes between 15 and 19 yards, as KU is averaging 10.5 yards per pass attempt while completing an impressive 55 percent of those throws.

The conclusion from all the data above? Though Heaps has thrown the largest number of passes to the right this year, KU’s had much more success when he’s thrown in the center.

Heaps’ best numbers have come on intermediate passes between the hashes, meaning that the Jayhawks might benefit if they gave Heaps more options in that area: a perfect spot for tight end Jimmay Mundine or KU’s receivers on routes over the middle.