Want to win in the Big 12? Turner Gill’s time might have to be next year

For the last two seasons, the Kansas football team combined to go just 13-12, but it also did something that many might have overlooked.

It bore the brunt of a brutal conference schedule.

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During the two-year swing, the Jayhawks’ three opponents in the Big 12 South were Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech — the “big three” football powers in the South.

The reward for KU was going to be the 2010 and 2011 seasons. KU’s slate was poised to get much easier, as Baylor, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State were going to be substituted for UT, OU and TTU in the schedule.

With the recently rescued Big 12, though, KU will only be paid 50 cents on the dollar for going through murderer’s row the last two years.

Though KU will have its normal 2010 schedule, the 2011 schedule will be greatly altered because of the new 10-team format. The Jayhawks will now play every Big 12 opponent in football every season.

So how does 2011 change? Just take a look at what KU’s final nine games would have been, and what they will be now. The changed games are in bold:

2011 original schedule

Non-conference opponent
vs. Baylor
@ Kansas State
@ Texas A&M
vs. Iowa State
@ Colorado*
vs. Nebraska
@ Oklahoma State
vs. Missouri

2011 new schedule

vs. Baylor
@ Kansas State
@ Texas A&M
vs. Iowa State
@ Oklahoma State
vs. Missouri
Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma

* — I’m assuming Colorado leaves the Big 12 after the 2010 season, which is now being speculated in some news sources.

— The sites/dates of the Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma games have not been determined.

As you can see, the “new” Big 12 makes things way, way more difficult for KU in 2011.

Essentially, KU is “trading” a non-conference game, a winnable game at Colorado and a game at Nebraska for three games against Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma.

Ouch.

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I’ve been one to say that expectations should be tempered for KU coach Turner Gill’s first year at KU. Not only is there an adjustment period to a new staff, but KU also has to replace a ton of lost starters at the skill positions, especially on offense. I was thinking any bowl game would be a success.

Now, though, it’s all about opportunity. And as crazy as it sounds, KU’s best opportunity to make a serious run in the Big 12 might be next season.

Though everything might not be set up perfectly for Gill next season, KU gets to avoid Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma one last time.

Take another look at KU’s 2010 schedule.

2010 schedule

vs. North Dakota State
vs. Georgia Tech
@ Southern Miss
vs. New Mexico State
@ Baylor
vs. Kansas State
vs. Texas A&M
@ Iowa State
vs. Colorado
@ Nebraska
vs. Oklahoma State
vs. Missouri

I’m thinking an “average” team would finish with as many wins against the 2010 schedule as a “good” team would finish against the 2011 schedule.

It’s extremely likely, then, that KU could be better in 2011, but have a much worse record than 2010.

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Ready or not, KU’s time to make a serious run in the Big 12 might be now.

The Jayhawks won’t be able to hide from the powers of the Big 12 South much longer.