A series of troughs will approach western North America by then and begin to shift our surface winds around to the southeast. A warm front will likely roll through our region from the south during the afternoon on Monday and introduce our first chance for storms at that time. One limiting factor for Monday’s severe chances will be the initial lack of boundary-layer moisture. Though it’s too early to tell (as of Tuesday 5/4) how far north that front will surge, how much juice will eventually become available, and what mode of severe might accompany it, we will keep an eye on this closely precisely because warm fronts can be prolific producers of severe weather.

Better chances probably arrive Tuesday (and perhaps linger into midweek) as stronger dynamics associated with the western troughs approach our region and ride atop a progressively moistening warm sector that will likely occupy much of the Central and Southern Plains (including us).