LJWorld.com weblogs Lawrence Weather Watch
Posted
by Ashley Meenen
March 4, 2010 at 5:03 p.m.
Join in the forecasting contest
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Just a reminder, anyone interested in the forecasting competition still has time to join. It will begin next week, with the first forecast FOR Wednesday, March 10th DUE by 11 p.m. Tuesday, March 9th. For the first week I will score the forecasts, but we will call it a trial run, so it won't count towards your final score. This way we can work out any kinks or questions that may come up.
As far as officially signing up for the contest goes, just send me an email with your name, city, state and a forecast name. Your forecast name is what will be used when we post scores on the blog, so you are welcome to use your real name, but you don't have to. Just put "LJWorld Forecast" in the subject.
Here is how you forecast will be scored:
The idea of this contest is to have the lowest score. At the end of each forecast day, I will calculate how many degrees your high and low temperatures were off. Each degree off is one point. For precipitation I will use the categories, but instead of one point I will use three points; so for each category your forecast is off, it will be three points. Additionally, snow will be another three points. If you say there will be snow and there isn't, that will be another three points. Similarly, if you say no snow and there is snow, that will also be three points
Here are a few examples.
Your forecast: High: 70 Low: 40 Category: 4 Snow: No
Actual forecast: High: 68 Low: 42 Category: 2 Snow: No
Your score would be 2 + 2 + 6 + 0 or 10
If the actual forecast was High: 68 Low: 42 Category: 2 Snow: Yes
Your score would be 2 + 2 + 6 + 3 or 13
If you miss a forecast the default high and low temperatures will be taken from climatology (the average high and low). The default category will be 0 and the default snow choice will be no. This way if you miss a forecast, it won't automatically put you out of the competition.
Don't forget, we will be doing this for three different cities. Also, if you decide you would like to join after the contest begins, let me know, we can find away to add people in later.
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