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LJWorld.com weblogs Lawrence Weather Watch

More snow expected by week's end

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Weather forecasting in Kansas is always a challenge, but winter is the most humbling. This year hasn't been as bad from a forecasting standpoint since most of the predicted winter storms have actually panned out this year.

Now we've got storm number ... well, I've actually lost count. Let's call it the Friday storm. This next storm is once again showing signs of a fairly strong jetstream trough, or dipping in the jetstream flow. This will move our way on Thursday night into Friday, clouding us up and increasing our chances for precipitation. Well ahead of this storm system, our winds will be southerly on Wednesday into a good part of Thursday. This will allow some milder air to be in place as the storm approaches.

Computer model projection of the jetstream at 6 p.m. Thursday

Computer model projection of the jetstream at 6 a.m. Friday

Unlike last week's storm, the colder air to the north isn't bitterly cold and isn't particularly dry. That means two things: Most of the precipitation will reach the ground this time and precipitation type is more of a concern.

Here's where the fun begins. Most of the computer projections are in line with what we've reasoned out, as well. This jetstream trough will bring us a good amount of precipitation in the .30" to .50" range. Initially, we'll be warm enough for a few rain showers, then gradually turning colder with a better probability of snow for Friday. While it's still too early to say with certainty, we could see 2-4" of snow by late Friday.

So, what's the real catch? All computer models are keeping our temperatures between 31.5F and 32.9F. So, if we're just above freezing we'll see a sloppy snow that doesn't stick well. Or we'll get the 2-4" of snow and sit just below freezing.

If you didn't know it already, Friday is National Weatherperson's Day (I'm thinking about registering for gifts somewhere this year). So, we get to "celebrate" our holiday with what will be either a decent forecast or another frustrating winter system. I'll hope for the former.

Comments

Kelly Johnson 4 years, 2 months ago

I am pretty good at figuring out acronyms usually, but I don't have a clue what NDMF means.

Pywacket, you make a good point - it IS better to see pretty snow then dead grass and dirt!

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headdoctor 4 years, 2 months ago

someone04 (Anonymous) says… Thanks to all of the guys who try to keep the streets clean for us when it does snow!


Now if we could figure out a way for them to also permanently clear off all the NDMF's it would be safer all the time for other drivers, bicycle riders, and pedestrians not to mention maybe cheaper insurance coverage.

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mwmiller 4 years, 2 months ago

gnome - this one doesn't look to be an ice-producing storm. Even though the temperatures at the surface will be teetering back and forth around the freezing mark, when you look at the whole layer of hte atmosphere from the point where the snowflakes form down to the ground it's below freezing for that whole layer during just about the whole event (if any ice it would occur near the beginning of the event on Thursday but even that is unlikely).

So, the surface temperatures being close to 32 (+/- 1) gives us more of a chance of either snow, half-melted snow/slush or a very cold raiin at times. Because the above freezing layer is only right at the ground I'm leaning toward the likelihood of snow. Still looks like some areas will get 2-4"

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bearded_gnome 4 years, 2 months ago

If you didn't know it already, Friday is National Weatherperson's Day (I'm thinking about registering for gifts somewhere this year). So, we get to "celebrate"

---so, do you register at sunflower outfitters for those outside shots of the weather???

the outside shots of the weather dude/dudette experiencing the current conditions, i.e. Geraldo Rivera reporting on incoming hurricane, at ocean's edge and signs and trees narrowly miss his head [we're cheering for the signs and random cr*p to hit him!], so so so lame!

here, weather dude/dudette stands out in rain, to show its raining...lame.


so, could we get ice instead? if not, why not Matt?

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someone04 4 years, 2 months ago

Thanks to all of the guys who try to keep the streets clean for us when it does snow!

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hujiko 4 years, 2 months ago

snow snow snow snow snow snow snow snow snow snow snow snow

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Pywacket 4 years, 2 months ago

Bring it on! I've really enjoyed all the snow this winter. I'd like to see some more before it warms up. If it's going to be cold anyway, there might as well be snow hiding the ugly brown and gray landscape.

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kujhawk 4 years, 2 months ago

what about the people that wanted a white xmas? where are you now?

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thebcman 4 years, 2 months ago

my bet is for the warmer temps with a wet snow that will stick to the grass but not the streets.

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