Weather forecasting in Kansas is always a challenge, but winter is the most humbling. This year hasn’t been as bad from a forecasting standpoint since most of the predicted winter storms have actually panned out this year.

Now we’ve got storm number … well, I’ve actually lost count. Let’s call it the Friday storm. This next storm is once again showing signs of a fairly strong jetstream trough, or dipping in the jetstream flow. This will move our way on Thursday night into Friday, clouding us up and increasing our chances for precipitation. Well ahead of this storm system, our winds will be southerly on Wednesday into a good part of Thursday. This will allow some milder air to be in place as the storm approaches.

Computer model projection of the jetstream at 6 p.m. Thursday

Computer model projection of the jetstream at 6 a.m. Friday

Unlike last week’s storm, the colder air to the north isn’t bitterly cold and isn’t particularly dry. That means two things: Most of the precipitation will reach the ground this time and precipitation type is more of a concern.

Here’s where the fun begins. Most of the computer projections are in line with what we’ve reasoned out, as well. This jetstream trough will bring us a good amount of precipitation in the .30″ to .50″ range. Initially, we’ll be warm enough for a few rain showers, then gradually turning colder with a better probability of snow for Friday. While it’s still too early to say with certainty, we could see 2-4″ of snow by late Friday.

So, what’s the real catch? All computer models are keeping our temperatures between 31.5F and 32.9F. So, if we’re just above freezing we’ll see a sloppy snow that doesn’t stick well. Or we’ll get the 2-4″ of snow and sit just below freezing.

If you didn’t know it already, Friday is National Weatherperson’s Day (I’m thinking about registering for gifts somewhere this year). So, we get to “celebrate” our holiday with what will be either a decent forecast or another frustrating winter system. I’ll hope for the former.