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LJWorld.com weblogs Lawrence Weather Watch

Severe Weather Possible Thursday

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A powerful storm system will approach the region late this week and introduce the chance for severe storms on Thursday.

Temperatures in the 80s, strong winds near the ground and aloft, and modestly humid conditions should be in place across central and eastern Kansas by the time a large upper trough approaches the Central Plains late in the week.

There is still plenty of uncertainty in the forecast regarding the timing details, storm location, primary storm mode (e.g., squall-line type with hail and high winds, or isolated tornadic supercells), and even the likelihood that any storms will form at all.

So why even mention it? Not because it’s Spring and it’s Kansas.

Rather, it’s because the large-scale conditions that will likely accompany the parent upper-level trough warrant a “heads up."

Comments

trinity 4 years, 8 months ago

not if you grab your helmet, winter coat, and head to the basement to take cover under a sturdy table! do it now!

whats_going_on 4 years, 8 months ago

a lot of people are already doing that, problem solved.

gpostel 4 years, 8 months ago

Hi The_Original_Bob,

Someday, yes. Can't deny that.

But not Thursday.

gpostel 4 years, 8 months ago

Hi trinity,

This is some of what makes living in Kansas interesting, no ?

Ron Holzwarth 4 years, 8 months ago

That's the only thing I've seen today that made me laugh! Thanks!

somedude20 4 years, 8 months ago

this storm won't be spit what scares me is that the Jersey Devil relocated from Jersey to Lawrence and it lives down the road from me. WATCHOUT!!!!!!!!!

amrose42683 4 years, 8 months ago

Why don't we just worry about today first and worry about Thursday on Thursday. 99% of the time weather predictions are completely incorrect until the day of. Geez.

Ron Holzwarth 4 years, 8 months ago

You're supposed to be wearing a blue gingham dress and ruby red slippers for a tornado! Didn't you see the movie?

iloveme 4 years, 8 months ago

Well, I'm due to have my third child Friday. Remember the tornadoes seven years ago? That's when our first was born... I guess I need a good thunderstorm to knock me into labor...

gpostel 4 years, 8 months ago

Hi amrose42683,

Your comment: "Why don't we just worry about today first and worry about Thursday on Thursday. 99% of the time weather predictions are completely incorrect until the day of. Geez. "

Because there is value in giving the general public a weather foreacast that is better than flipping a coin. And many types of forecasts for weather events 3 days out are MUCH better than a guess. Your statement that, "99% of the time weather predictions are completely incorrect until the day of" is factually incorrect.

So, why worry about Thursday's weather ? Don't. Nobody is telling anybody to worry. But it's better to have a skillful forecast (one that's better than climatology) in your back pocket to plan around just in case.

hope this helps,

greg

gpostel 4 years, 8 months ago

Hi somedude20,

the Jersey Devil scares me too. My car once broke down in the Pine Barrens at night. Yikes.

Linda Aikins 4 years, 8 months ago

Didn't Katie tell us once to go to the basement and put helmets on your family and strap everyone to the beams?

"Yes we're all gonna die" is one of our very common responses based on Katie's drama. But I think Gary Lezak and his crew are getting quite dramatic too.

I will say the weather channel nailed the Saturday storms in Mississippi. I was impressed!

newmedia 4 years, 8 months ago

Just show us the radar and we will figure it out...

amrose42683 4 years, 8 months ago

I gotta say I'm amazed at the outcry against my very sarcastic statement in regards to how difficult it is to predict KS weather. Sarcasm people! There's no "link" because it was purely a sarcastic remark. However, I'm still not gonna worry about Thursday until Thursday, it's four days away and a lot can happen, or not happen, in four days. Chill out people, you act like I just insulted your mama. It really does go to prove that no matter what you say on the LJW comments, someone has to fight you.

Greg: I understand why you posted what you did. Just thought it was odd that it ranked as highly as it did in the news. I do pay attention to weather forecasts and am appreciative to know what's going on sir:)

gpostel 4 years, 8 months ago

Hi amrose42683,

No worries. It's all good. Let's just wait and see what happens on Thursday. I'm not putting on my bike helmet on just yet :)

greg

riverdrifter 4 years, 8 months ago

Weather sensationalism/hysteria at its finest: http://www.accuweather.com/

They make Katy Tornady look like she's on 'ludes.

Ron Holzwarth 4 years, 8 months ago

Years ago a very experienced person, a jet aircraft pilot, pointed out to me that if you wanted to know what the weather would be like tomorrow, all you had to say was, "It'll be pretty much like today." Then he claimed that 90% of the time, you would be correct.

Then he went on, "They've spent millions and millions of dollars on predictive equipment and forecasters, and now they're 95% accurate."

So, millions and millions of dollars have been spent improving the odds of weather prediction by only 5%.

But, I'm only quoting, I'm not an expert.

gpostel 4 years, 8 months ago

Hi RonHolzwarth,

Not sure about the veracity of the 90% rule for tomorrow's weather. But keep in mind, much of the money/research is spent on trying to reduce uncertainty in the forecasts BEYOND tomorrow.

True, you don'd need a meteorologist to forecast the weather a few hours out. Just look out the window. And my cat can probably take a good guess at tomorrow's weather, and I don't even have a cat. But how about 2 days out ? 5 days out (with an undersatnding of the uncertainty) ? How about the pattern for next week/month ? How about the kind of severe weather to expect given a particular setup ?

The heart of the problem is that the governing dynamics are highly nonlinear. The fact that the initial conditions have (and always will have) errors means that the forecasts will rapidly deteriorate after a day or two. Our science is aware of this and is always looking to improve observational capabilities and model accuracy. So, unless you can get a clairvoyant cat, without mets/research/money, you are left with looking out the window. And hoping.

greg

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