LJWorld.com weblogs Lawrence Weather Watch
Posted
by Matt Miller
November 13, 2009 at 7:50 a.m.
Cool weather, precipitation expected early next week; perhaps even — SNOW
Low pressures are also referred to as cyclones. In the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, mid-latitude cyclones are what we see on a weather map as a low pressure often with a cold front and warm front attached to it.
By the early part of next week, we have a cut-off low in the jetstream flow that will be moving in through southern Kansas.
As this cut-off low moves in, it will produce widespread precipitation near and northeast of its location. That puts the eastern side of Kansas in a very favorable area for precipitation.
Low pressure will develop at the surface to our south, further enhancing our north winds and ushering in some chilly weather at the surface, with much of the area holding in the 30s during the daytime Monday into Monday night.
Even though surface temperatures will likely be a couple of degrees above freezing, you won't have to go too far up into the atmosphere to get into sub-freezing conditions.(see the 850mb temperature map below where we'll be well below 0C/32F at that level)
Of course, slight changes in the track could bring in slight cooler or warmer air into the system, but what is so interesting right now is that the precipitation has been consistently showing up at fairly heavy across Northeast Kansas. In addition to that, the air beneath the clouds will be mostly below freezing until the last couple hundred feet near the ground. Big question will be: Will the precipitation have time to melt once it hits that slightly warmer air right at the ground or will parts of the area see some slushy flakes by Monday?
We'll be watching this one throughout the weekend very closely.
and 2 others
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Comments
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thepianoman (anonymous) says…
Oh geez....gimme a break....it's not going to snow. They're calling for possible "flurries"....and it's still days away.....You're just trying to get people hyped....
Irish (Leslie Swearingen) says…
Thanks for the maps. I like this blog.
I have a question, how much do all the huge cities with the very tall buildings affect surface temperature, hot air coming out of all the vents and rising into the air, and do the building themselves affect how the air moves not only in the city, but after it moves past?
Do metroplexes, cities that flow into each other, create their own micro climate?
Thanks.
mwmiller (Matt Miller) says…
pianoman- We'll likely not see snow as you can see on our video forecasts and other forecasts on the site, but I am trying to show that while it will be mostly rain we could still see half-melted flakes in temperatures over 32 in a set-up like this. Nothing that would stick even if it happened. It's also more likely west of Lawrence...maybe even west of Topeka for that to happen.
Irish- Cities do have an impact on microclimate, producing small-scale low pressures due to their increased warmth and creating wind flow inward toward cities. That leads to air rising and more clouds forming over cities...but these impacts are not a huge part of weather. The fact that cities tend to be a few degrees warmer at night and a couple degrees warmer in the daytime is true mostly in the summer when the concrete heats up more with the more intense sunshine. Less of a factor in the winter or during windy weather.
misplacedcheesehead (anonymous) says…
What is there to watch closely? Ha,ha,ha...
RoeDapple (anonymous) says…
OMG! The sky is dark green and there is a (>) over my house! We're all gonna DIE!!!
;-)
KUweatherman (Curtis Lange) says…
Irish, do a google search for 'Urban Heat Island Effect' for more info relating to your questions. Winds most certainly are effected by buildings in large cities as well; they tend to be sped up in cities as the wind is funneled into tighter quarters down city streets/alleys and around buildings. The effect on the wind after it passes the city however would be minimal. Maybe slightly drier after flowing through the warmer urban landscape.
misplaced: Even if we don't get snow out of this storm, it will still be quite the soaker. So, yes, everyone needs to be keeping an eye on this storm for either potential travel hazards (we all know people freak out when there is snow on the road, especially the first one of the season) or possible flash flooding.
Irish (Leslie Swearingen) says…
Thanks guys for your answer. I am fasinated by the weather and all the forces that shape it.
I seem to remember reading that the Fourier program is used for the weather. True or false?
Any chance of a Reading a Weather Map 101 online course on here?
KUweatherman (Curtis Lange) says…
This is a good site to get a basic understanding of things you see on a surface map: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/det...
And for many good maps, go here: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/
misplacedcheesehead (anonymous) says…
Mr. Lange, why do people in Ks panic at the first snow of the season, or the slightest amount of snow on the road? I mean, it's just snow!! After 27 years down here, I still get a hearty laugh out of it every year.
KUweatherman (Curtis Lange) says…
That discussion would take us to another totally different topic: The majority of people simply don't know how to drive. Snow or not. Real sad, actually.