LJWorld.com weblogs Lawrence Weather Watch
Posted
by Ed Bloodsworth
November 8, 2009 at midnight
Kansas' weather drama
A week ago, we concluded the 4th coldest October on record and the coldest October this area has seen since 1976. We were stuck in a pattern that featured a persistent upper-level trough parked over Northeast Kansas. This allowed continuous pushes of cold air into the area. That is now behind us.
We have just finished the first full week of November 2009; inching closer to winter which officially starts December 21. Yet, you wouldn't know winter was coming if you spent the last week outdoors. The temperatures have been dramatically above normal. Keep in mind that our normal high temperatures should be in the middle 50s this time of year. Here are the recorded highs in Topeka for the first full week of November.
Nov. 1 - 78 Nov. 2 - 61 Nov. 3 - 60 Nov. 4 - 63 Nov. 5 - 70 Nov. 6 - 76 Nov. 7 - 75
AVG. HIGH for the first week: 69 degrees Normal High: 59 degrees
For the first week of November, we were about 10 degrees ABOVE normal. What a difference a month makes. What did you do differently this past week that you would normally not do because it was unseasonably warm? Feel free to comment.
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Comments
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Fugu (anonymous) says…
Funny that people had convinced themselves that global warming isn't happening because of last months cooler than average temperature.. Where are those people now?
snap_pop_no_crackle (anonymous) says…
A month beats a week, fugu.
DaddyTopCat (Scott Kaiser) says…
Just as I've always thought that lab students cause cancer, I've become convinced that Democrats cause Global Warming.
muckfizzou2 (anonymous) says…
if we would all stop using microwaves, the globe would stop warming...
Fugu (anonymous) says…
snap,
My comment was poking fun at those who think they can predict climate change patterns from several days worth of local weather data, a looniness that you just perpetuated.
ebloodsworth (Ed Bloodsworth) says…
Thank you guys for all of your comments. Keep in mind that this discussion was not intended to add to the Global Warming Debate. In October we were dealing with a trough in the upper atmosphere that allowed for the cool weather pattern. For the first week of Novmber, a ridge pattern set up allowing for the warming.
devobrun (anonymous) says…
Unfortunately, Ed, the definition of weather and that of climate is fuzzy. One man's weather is another man's climate.
Yearly, decadal, century, millennial? Local, regional, global? All ill-defined variables in the battle for fuzzy-science politics.
While there are formal distinctions between the two, these definitions are not always followed. Hurricane Katrina was reportedly exacerbated by "global warming". Of course the evidence for this statement is non-existent, but such is life when weather, climate and politics all collide.
There is nothing taller than a cottonwood tree between here and the north pole.
Going south, isn't much different.
Wind from the south, its warm.
Wind from the north, its cold.
What causes the wind to shift? Randomness, chaos, and we don't know.
50 years ago weather prediction were pretty good for 1 to 3 days out, depending on the type of weather.
Nowadays we have terraflop computers and satellites and we have pushed that time frame to about 3 to 5 days, again depending on the type of weather.
Yet, people still predict what the winter will be like, in 2 months! They don't know. Nobody will ever know either because it isn't just about more and more rational deduction and modeling.
Lately, it seems that creative averaging is the method along with creative narrative and rhetoric.
"Chance of rain tomorrow, 50%." Another way of saying this it might rain, it might not.......flip a coin.
notjustastudent (anonymous) says…
Kinda funny fugu- you are perpetuating looniness yourself by connecting this week's warm weather with global warming. What actually indicates climate change is not last month's cold or this week's warmth, but both- sudden, dramatic shifts in weather are huge indicators, not that I really want to complain. I have lovvvvved having my windows open the last few days, and will be sad when I have to close them again :(
DougCounty (anonymous) says…
Well, despite your protestations about the ambiguities of modeling and climate change, devobrun, I trust the data-driven models of the climatologists who have come together with more unanimity in the past decade than ever before about the anthropogenic (read: human caused) basis of climate change. Why? Because they DO look at the data and use it to refine their models continuously.
Interesting what the data does show: that even the recent "cooling" period is absorbed by the larger global perspective that continues to march ever warmer despite the solar cycle, which is going through the greatest solar minimum in over a century.
For those interested in the data, a particularly good discussion can be found at:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/...
thebcman (anonymous) says…
I don't believe humans have been alive on this planet long enough to determine any real weather patterns. Our presence here is just a drop in the bucket in the grand scheme of things.
That said, I enjoyed the frigid October, and I am enjoying the toasty November. I love the ups and downs of Kansas weather. It's nice to spend quality time outdoors without getting eaten alive by mosquitoes.