While weather models are not perfect, we do tend to bank on them a little more when they show consistency. Weather models have been quite consistent lately at showing some possible changes in our anticipated heat wave. Weather models are alluding to the possibility that the hottest “actual” temperatures may stay just south and west of the Lawrence area through the upcoming weekend. In return, we may have higher thunderstorm chances; some strong.

Thunderstorms typically form on the edges of a hot airmass. We call this edge, “The Ring of Fire”. Northeast Kansas will be very close, if not on, the ring of fire through the weekend. If weather models keep showing us this trend, we may continue to back off on “actual” temperatures this weekend. However, who really cares about the “actual” temperature? What is most important is what it “feels” like.

We will still be close enough to this hot airmass to likely zip into the lower-to-mid-90’s through the weekend. Unfortunately, because we may be on the edge of the hot air, we may see the most humid weather pool over us, too. So, while actual temperatures may not teeter with 100°F, the “feel” like temperature (the combination of heat and humidity) will likely still top 95-105°F through the weekend. Depending on the timing and placement of thunderstorm chances, temperatures forecasts may need to be refined accordingly.

Sitting on the ring of fire can make for tricky temperature forecasts. The best chance of thunderstorms around the ring of fire is during the evening, overnight and early morning hours. If storms last a little longer–into the daylight hours–then temperatures may be a bit cooler. If storms clear out by mid-to-late morning, the hot Kansas sun will evaporate any residual rainfall, making for hotter “feeling” temperatures. Yuck!

So, current trends are backing down somewhat on “actual” temperatures for this upcoming weekend. Current trends are showing an increase in potential thunderstorm activity. The timing and placement of thunderstorms are key to what it will “feel” like outside later this week, going into the weekend. Any change in placement of the edge of hottest weather will impact those thunderstorm chances, and subsequent temperatures. Nevertheless, it’s still looking quite warm and humid.