Much complexity to snow storm system expected on Tuesday

LJWorld.com weblogs Lawrence Weather Watch

Posted by Matt Miller December 7, 2009 at 12:01 a.m.

When you forecast for a large area of Northeast Kansas, winter forecasting is both fun and frustrating. Part of the frustration comes from the fact that storms like what we have on tap for Tuesday have more facets to it than can be conveyed in a brief web story or a short broadcast.

So, here's some insight into what is making this storm so complex. Warmer air will be surging north throughout the lowest 3,000 feet of the atmosphere. Recall that rain begins as snow. Since the snowflakes will be falling from a very cold part of the clouds several thousand feet up, it will then have to fall through the lowest 3,000 feet of the air. So if that warmer air can surge all the way up to the I-70 corridor (which is about where it should make it by Tuesday afternoon and early evening), then the snow becomes a rain/snow mix.

So let's say we see a few inches of snow fall and accumulate BEFORE the changeover. How do you easily get the message to people that 3-5" of snow may accumulate, then some of that will melt away. Not to mention that predicting the amount of snow melt in the evening hours with a rain/snow mix is probably a more difficult task than predicting accumulations!

After that quandary, there is the fact that significantly colder air will surge in and the changeover to snow will take place across the region. But that very cold air is also very dry. So how much of the snow will sublimate on the way down? (Note:sublimation is when you go straight from solid -- snow -- to a vapor)

Add to that the fact that we're only talking about the I-70 corridor. We have readers/viewers/radio listeners from the Nebraska border to areas south of I-35. Up north, it's easier this time ... all snow and a lot of it! But to the south, we're in the same boat with how long the mix will last, etc.

I know not everyone agrees, but I love the snow. It's just too bad that some of our bigger storms have to be the ones that are also complex. I'm actually looking more forward to a good snow that is just that ... only snow. Then I can enjoy the snowfall AND the forecasting part of it won't be so draining!

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Kookamooka 3 years, 6 months ago

Thanks for clarifying this. I look forward to more blogs of explanation. I'm with you about the snow. I love the stuff! Can't wait to sled.

Kris_H 3 years, 6 months ago

I'd rather drive in several inches of snow than any amount of ice. So if it has to do something, I'd rather have the snow, too.

lily 3 years, 6 months ago

I'm with Kris_H. I can deal with a lot of snow as opposed to a little ice.

beawolf 3 years, 6 months ago

I'm from Northern Minnesota. We call this icy, wet, rain/snow mix July. A little snow covering for the holidays would be nice.

Paul Decelles 3 years, 6 months ago

Hey Beawolf,

How many words do Minnesotans have for different types of snow?

mommymoore3 3 years, 6 months ago

3 types of snow in northern Minnesota. Snow, Blowing snow, and drifting snow. That pretty much sums it up.

Leslie Swearingen 3 years, 6 months ago

I also enjoy reading these blogs that explain the terms that you use. Now I know a new word, sublimate, from a solid to a vapor. I like the snow when it is the dry, fluffy kind. Especially the first day after a big snowfall when everything is covered and it is so quiet.

Curtis Lange 3 years, 6 months ago

We just live in a near no man's land for good snow storms (6+" storms). Just think, a couple hundred miles to our south and snow isn't very common. A couple hundred miles to our north and snow (a lot of it) is the norm in winter. All facets of a storm in our area have to be juuuuuust right. If they aren't, we get ice or the winter mix mess that is most likely going to occur tomorrow.