LJWorld.com weblogs Heard on the Hill
Posted
by Andy Hyland
March 17, 2009 at 3:48 p.m.
"Upsetology" gives ND State 22.6 percent chance of beating KU
The Wall Street Journal has pegged KU as the three seed most vulnerable to a first-round upset.
In an article titled "The Science of Upsetology," KU would lose to North Dakota State 22.6 percent of the time, according to 10,000 computer simulations of the game run by sports forecaster AccuScore.
KU's chance of losing Friday's game is the highest among the top 12 seeded teams in the tournament, according to the rankings. While that may seem a little grim, especially given KU's first-round upsets in recent history, it's at least better treatment than the simulations gave Washington.
The fourth seed in the West region was only given a 51.9 percent chance of beating 13th-seeded Mississippi State.
Tip of the cap to KUSports.com user TriniHawk for the link.
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overthemoon (anonymous) says…
what happened to the college student from South Carolina who pegged the NCAA tournament using statistical modelling? He was spot on and predicted a Kansas win when no one else did.