NBA Stock Watch: April, 2010

Want more proof of what a strong showing in the NCAA Tournament can do to your NBA Draft stock?

Then look no further than Butler sophomore Gordon Hayward.

Prior to this year’s NCAA Tournament, in which Butler made a magical and memorable run all the way to the title game, Hayward was known throughout college basketball as a good player who likely would be a four-year star at the small school in Indianapolis.

Fast forward a few weeks and now Hayward is popping up on Mock Draft sites throughout the Internet.

Take MyNBADraft.com, for example. Not only is Hayward listed as a mid-first-round selection, he’s also listed one spot ahead of Kansas University freshman Xavier Henry.

The site, one of five that I’ve used for this “Stock Watch” all season, has Hayward at No. 16 overall to Minnesota. One pick later, Henry is slated to go to the Chicago Bulls.

Baby-faced and all limbs, Howard projects by some as a better NBA prospect than Henry. My guess is that it’s because he has a natural ballplayer aura about him, unlike Henry, who, with the physical tools of a much more mature man, still has a lot of polishing to do before he plays the game like Hayward.

Hayward is a natural scorer — from anywhere on the floor — has great size for an NBA shooting guard, has exceptional ball-handling skills for a player of his height and plays far tougher than he looks. Henry has a man’s body and a deadly shot — when he’s on — but also has work to do in the ball-handling department, struggles to drive it to the rim and needs to find a way to develop a killer instinct that rarely showed up during his year in Lawrence.

It’s up to you to decide what this says about Henry’s decision to turn pro. It’s up to me to point out how helpful a solid tournament can be in a player’s draft stock.

With that in mind, and now that we know for sure that both Cole Aldrich and Henry will join Sherron Collins as Jayhawks eligible to be selected in the 2010 NBA Draft, here’s the latest look at where those guys stand.

COLE ALDRICH: JR., CENTER, 6-11, 245 pounds
Stock Assessment: After a stellar sophomore season at Kansas, Aldrich surprised some by returning to school for the 2009-10 season. The Bloomington, Minn., almost certainly would have been a lottery pick in last year’s draft and he entered his junior season as a sure-fire lottery pick and a preseason All-American.

Average Mock Draft Position: 8th (same as in March)

Current High: 5th (DraftSite.com)
Current Low: 12th (NBADraft.net)
Overall Movement: • Holding Steady • Once he shook off the cobwebs that plagued him to start the 2009-10 season, Aldrich became a pretty consistent performer. He wasn’t quite the offensive player we saw a year ago but he probably improved on the defensive end, if that was even possible. Teams that are looking at taking Aldrich know exactly what they’re getting and they’re likely looking at him because they also know what they need — a physical presence in the paint who will rebound, defend and block shots and who has the capability of chipping in on offense with room to grow. That pretty much describes Aldrich perfectly and, now more than ever, he seems to be a sure bet to become a lottery pick in June.

XAVIER HENRY: FR., GUARD/FORWARD, 6-6, 220 pounds
Stock Assessment: Xavier came to Kansas as the school’s first legitimate threat to be a one-and-done player. He arrived on campus with an NBA-ready body and had a deadly shooting touch and natural knack for scoring to go with it. As with any player, it’s likely that another year or even two in college would help polish his all-around game, but there’s no doubt that NBA scouts are drooling over his potential already.

Average Mock Draft Position: 12th (up from 13th in March)
Current High: 7th (DraftSite.com)
Current Low: 17th (MyNBADraft.com)
Overall Movement: • Holding Steady • Henry’s announcement Wednesday ended months of speculation about whether he’d stick around Lawrence longer than one season. He won’t. Now the only question is where he will go in the draft. Depending on who you talk to, Henry could go as high at Top 5 or as low as mid-20s. Few players in recent memory have had such a wide range of possibilities entering the draft. My guess is that we’ll know about where Xavier will wind up after he goes through some individual workouts and either blows people away or raises more questions.

SHERRON COLLINS: SR., POINT GUARD, 5-11, 205 pounds
Stock Assessment: For all the talk of Collins leaving Kansas early last season, saying goodbye really would not have made much sense. Last year’s draft was ultra-deep for point guards and Collins, primarily because of his lack of size, had not wowed the NBA enough to guarantee himself a first-round selection. With that in mind, and with visions of a second national championship in his head, Collins returned to school for his senior season, where he entered the year as a fringe first-rounder.

Average Mock Draft Position: 42nd (down from 26th in March)
Current High: 38th (DraftSite.com)
Current Low: Not Listed (HoopsHype.com and MyNBADraft.net)
Overall Movement: — Down — It’s known by now that Collins’ play in the tourney — and really down the stretch — did not do him any favors with the NBA scouts. But consider this recent comment from ESPN’s Chad Ford regarding Collins’ stock: “Collins was terrible when Kansas needed him most. After bailing out the Jayhawks in numerous late-game situations during the season, Collins just couldn’t get it done against Northern Iowa. He was pressing, taking bad shots and turning the ball over way too much. Collins almost redeemed himself in the closing seconds of the game, but Kansas fell short, and it’s going to hurt him. I was joking when I said via Twitter that I’d drop him 50 spots on the Big Board. But, I think it’s safe to say that any dreams Collins had of cracking the first round may have just shattered.” Hey, no need to panic here. Collins often has been at his best when people don’t believe in him. Second-round status may be just what he needs to become motivated enough to make a roster.

TYSHAWN TAYLOR: SOPH., GUARD, 6-3, 180 pounds
Stock Assessment: Of the Jayhawks with the NBA on their radar, Taylor entered the season as the long shot of the bunch. There’s no doubt that someday Taylor will probably don an NBA uniform. But unless he were to turn in a monster sophomore season, it probably would not be in 2010.

Average Mock Draft Position: Incomplete (only listed on 1 of 5 boards)
Current High: 56th (MyNBADraft.com)
Current Low: Not Listed (HoopsHype.com, NBADraft.net, DraftExpress.com and DraftSite.com)
Overall Movement: + On the Rise + I’m not really sure how Taylor went from being unlisted in March to being a second-rounded in April. Maybe the “upside” has returned. There’s no doubt that Taylor has the tools — in terms of size and raw skills — to be an NBA player someday. There’s even less doubt about whether that day will be soon. Despite this latest development, Taylor has too much to gain by coming back for his junior season to even think about leaving now. Case in point: Taylor is listed as the 18th overall pick in the 2011 Mock Draft on DraftExpress.com’s site.

MARCUS MORRIS: SOPH., FORWARD, 6-8, 225 pounds
Stock Assessment: Morris entered the season on the heels of a pretty decent freshman season but with no real designs on making a name for himself with the NBA brass for at least another season. He spent the first half of the season playing at an up-and-down pace but has taken off lately and has become one of KU’s most consistent performers night-in and night-out.

Average Mock Draft Position: Incomplete (not listed on any boards)
Current High: N/A
Current Low: Not Listed (all five boards)

Overall Movement: • Holding Steady • Maybe it’s because Kansas already has three potential first-round draft picks on its roster. Maybe it’s because the NBA scouts simply don’t think Morris is ready yet. Whatever the case, his name continues to stay off of the draft boards despite him averages of 12.4 points per game, 6.1 rebounds per game and 56 percent shooting from the floor. Now that he’s all but guaranteed that he’ll be back for his junior year, there’s really no reason to speculate further on Morris’ stock. Know this, though: If he follows up his sophomore campaign with a stellar junior year, the 2011 Lottery is not out of the question.

Draft sites used for the player positioning portion of this blog include: NBADraft.net, DraftExpress.com, HoopsHype.com, DraftSite.com and MyNBADraft.com.