LJWorld.com weblogs Five-minute Scout
Richmond looks a lot like a team KU just played
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 66
• Shooting: Much like Belmont, Richmond enters Allen Fieldhouse as one of the top shooting teams in the country. The Spiders rank 19th in effective field goal percentage and also are in the nation's top 50 in two-point percentage (52.1 percent) and three-point percentage (38.8 percent). Richmond's three-point percentage is especially impressive considering 41 percent of their field-goal tries are three-pointers, which is the 23rd-highest split nationally.
• Drawing free throws: Richmond ranks 29th nationally in free throw rate — a statistic used to show how often a team gets to the line compared to its field goal attempts. Despite playing at the nation's 299th-fastest pace, the Spiders still average more than 23 free throws per game. That's especially valuable with the way Richmond shoots freebies, as it has made 77 percent of its charity tries this year (21st nationally). Add it all up, and the Spiders get 24 percent of their offensive output from free throws, which is the 42nd-highest split nationally.
• Forcing turnovers: Richmond thrives on taking the ball away, registering steals on 13.4 percent of their defensive possessions (30th nationally). Overall, opposing teams turn it over on 24.6 percent of possessions against Richmond (41st nationally). The team's best ball-swipers are on the perimeter, as starting guard Cedrick Lindsay (No. 2) and reserve guard Wayne Sparrow (No. 4) both rank in the nation's top 120 in steal percentage.
• Defensive rebounding: Richmond plays extremely small in the post, ranking 319th in KenPom's "effective height" measure (which takes into account only the two tallest players on the floor). Because of this, the Spiders have struggled corralling defensive rebounds, grabbing just 64.9 percent of their opponents' misses (260th nationally). Richmond only has two rotation players 6 foot 9 or taller, and both average fewer than 15 minutes per game.
• Fouling too often: Though Richmond thrives in offensive free throw rate, it's not so great at defensive free throw rate, ranking 211th nationally in the stat. Opponents are averaging just over 20 free throws per game, which has ended up hurting the Spiders quite a bit. Those opponents have made 73.3 percent of their free throws against Richmond, which might suggest the Spiders have fouled too many good free throw shooters (read: guards) this season.
• Getting shots rejected: Richmond is a team that has a lot of shots blocked, as 11.9 percent of its two-pointers are rejected (289th nationally). It's amazing, then, how accurate Richmond has been on close shots despite getting all those shots swatted. The Spiders are still shooting 66 percent on layups/dunks, which is still well above the NCAA average of 61 percent. Once again, this shows Richmond is very selective with the shots it takes inside the arc.
3 Players to Watch
• Six-foot-6 junior Derrick Williams (No. 34) is Richmond's best player. Offensively, his greatest strength is getting to the free throw line, as he's third nationally in free throw rate (and also a 79-percent free throw shooter). The forward actually has shot more free throws this year (84) than field goals (78), something that's extremely rare this late into a season. Williams also ranks 75th in effective field goal percentage, helped by 65-percent accuracy from two-point range (44 of 68) and 80-percent shooting on layups/dunks.
Williams also is easily the Spiders' best rebounder, grabbing 12.3 percent of the available offensive boards (171st nationally) and 18.3 percent of the available defensive rebounds (343rd nationally). His one glaring weakness is carelessness, as he gives it away more than three times per game while leading the team with 34 turnovers.
• Six-foot-3 senior Darien Brothers (No. 3) is Richmond's biggest threat from the perimeter. He's made more than half of his threes this year (28 of 54) while posting the nation's 64th-best effective field goal percentage. The guard also is dangerous when he gets to the line, making 31 of 36 this year (86.1 percent). Brothers isn't a great passer and doesn't turn it over much, making him mostly a one-dimensional player ... though that dimension is very strong.
• Five-foot-8, 140-pound freshman guard Kendall Anthony (No. 0) is a bench player even though he doesn't play like one. The Jackson, Tenn., native isn't shy, putting up a team-high 29.7 percent of his team's shots when he's on the court (119th nationally). That's not a bad thing, either, as Anthony is an efficient player, rarely turning it over while making 42 percent of his threes (19 of 45) and getting to the free throw line often, drawing five fouls per 40 minutes. Like most of the Spiders, he doesn't miss free throws, connecting on 38 of 45 this year (84.4 percent). Though Anthony isn't much of a defender, he's definitely a player to be wary of on the offensive end.
My score predictions have stunk lately (other than picking the correct winner), and this game once again looks like a tough score pick, as it could have a wide range of outcomes.
I'm not sure if you noticed, but five of the six strengths and weaknesses above are the exact same strengths and weaknesses that Belmont had last week. And that game turned into a 29-point drubbing.
Basically, Richmond is Belmont with slightly worse defense. Still, this is a hard game to predict because of one factor: three-point shots.
Richmond shoots a ton of them. KU's defense surrenders a ton of them (36.1 percent of opponents' shots against KU this year have been threes).
Much like Belmont, Richmond going to be content to play the lottery Tuesday night by shooting a lot of three-pointers. Almost every team should do this against KU, because any three-point attempt is better than a Jeff Withey-blocked two.
If Richmond makes eight of 38 threes like Belmont did, this one will be a rout.
If the Spiders are hot, though, this could be a close game. And yes, the Spiders could even repeat 2004 and come away with a victory at Allen Fieldhouse.
This will continue to be a scary-type team for KU to play as long as it continues to allow a high percentage of three-point attempts.
So my guess? Let's say Richmond makes just below its season average for threes at 35 percent, which would make this a close-but-not-too-close victory for the Jayhawks.
Kansas 71, Richmond 61
Hawk to Rock
This could potentially be a tough defensive matchup for KU center Jeff Withey, who will have to be alert on ball-screen defense while also getting out quickly to perimeter shooters, but there's a lot to like about this matchup for him otherwise. Much like the Belmont game, he should be able to get the ball deep against an undersized Richmond front line. He also should have a nice night on the glass and will have an opportunity for at least a handful of blocks. If he's focused in defensively and allows KU coach Bill Self to stay with a big lineup, the potential is there for a big game statistically.
9-0 record, 127 points off (14.1 points off/game)
Hawk to Rock
SE Missouri: Perry Ellis (2nd in KUsports.com ratings)
Michigan State: Jeff Withey (4th)
Chattanooga: Andrew White III (10th)
Washington State: Ben McLemore (4th)
Saint Louis: Perry Ellis (7th)
San Jose State: Travis Releford (2nd)
Oregon State: Jeff Withey (2nd)
Colorado: Elijah Johnson (4th)
Belmont: Kevin Young (6th)
Average: 4.6th in KUsports.com ratings