Big 12 bowl games taking shape

For my thoughts on the latest week of college football action around the Big 12, check out the episode of ConferenceChatterTV below:

With only one more week left of the conference season, Big 12 bowl games are beginning to fall into place.

A lot can happen in the final week, but here’s how I see the Big 12’s bowl situations playing out:

Texas (11-0 overall, 7-0 Big 12)

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Colt McCoy, after UT’s victory over Kansas on Saturday

The Longhorns are a lock for the BCS Championship game if they defeat Texas A&M in College Station next week and knock off Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship on Dec. 5 in Arlington, Texas.

Postseason forecast: BCS Championship vs. Florida/Alabama winner

Oklahoma State (9-2, 6-1)

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Perrish Cox returns a kickoff to the house for Oklahoma St. against Colorado on Thursday

The Cowboys, at No. 12 in the BCS, remain in the hunt for an at-large BCS bid. To qualify for an at-large, a team must be in the top 14 of the BCS standings. One problem: To have the best chance at that at-large bid, they’ll have to win next week against Oklahoma in Norman, a place the Sooners have won 49 of the past 50 games. It’s the longest home winning streak in the country.

Potseason forecast: Cotton Bowl vs. SEC team

Nebraska (8-3, 5-2)

The North champion Huskers will appear in the Big 12 Championship for the fifth time in the 14-year history of the conference. They’ll face No. 3 Texas.

The most obvious scenario: Nebraska loses and still secures a solid bowl invitation.

If the Huskers’ third-ranked defense anchors an upset of Texas, Nebraska would play in the Fiesta Bowl, while Texas would still likely garner an at-large BCS invitation.

Postseason forecast: Holiday Bowl vs. Pac-10 team

Texas Tech (7-4, 4-3)

The Red Raiders should defeat Baylor next week and finish the season 8-4.

Postseason forecast: Alamo Bowl vs. Big Ten team

Missouri (7-4, 3-4)

After digging themselves in an 0-3 hole to start the conference season, the Tigers have won three of their last four games. Missouri has to wonder what kind of bowl it would be invited to had the Tigers simply defeated Baylor at home. That Nov. 7 loss has to be frustrating for MU.

Postseason forecast: Sun Bowl vs. Pac-10 team

Oklahoma (6-5, 4-3)

The last time the Sooners lost five games in a season was 1999. This has been one of the more forgettable seasons for OU, which had preseason aspirations of playing for a national championship.

Postseason forecast: Insight Bowl vs. Big Ten team

Iowa State (6-6, 3-5)

ISU coach Paul Rhoads gets my vote for Big 12 coach of the year. It’s crazy to think the Cyclones finished last season at 0-8 in the conference.

Postseason forecast: Texas bowl vs. Navy

Texas A&M (6-5, 3-4)

Any prediction on the Aggies this season should be taken rather lightly. Consider that A&M has posted victories this season by deficits of 35, 37, 22, 25 and 35 points. Impressive. Only thing is, the Aggies have also lost games this season by 28, 48 and 55 points. I’ll do my best in predicting this one:

Postseason forecast: Independence Bowl vs. SEC team

Kansas is the only team in the conference that doesn’t know if it will play in the postseason. With a victory over Missouri, KU could sneak into a bowl game that has ties from another conference that didn’t qualify enough teams.

For instance, ESPN’s Bruce Feldman predicts the Jayhawks will face Idaho in the Humanitarian Bowl on Dec. 30 in Boise, Idaho.

Kansas State, Baylor and Colorado will be watching the bowl games from home. The Wildcats may be one of the better teams in the North, but because they scheduled two teams against lower-level FCS opponents, the 6-6 ‘Cats aren’t going bowling this year. Lesson for the future: Schedule FBS opponents.

Here are the week 12 awards for Big 12 players who went above and beyond last weekend:

Player of the week: Colt McCoy, Texas

The Longhorns’ signal caller was on fire, completing 32 of 41 passes for 396 yards and four touchdowns against Kansas. McCoy also earned his 43rd victory, becoming the winningest quarterback in college football history.

Surprise of the week: Texas Tech 41, Oklahoma 13

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Where the heck did this come from? It’s not particularly shocking that the Red Raiders won this game. Tech has now defeated OU three straight times in Lubbock, Texas.

But to win by 28 points is stunning, particularly against a Sooners’ defense that had held eight of its previous 10 opponents to 16 points or less this season.

OU continues to struggle outside of Norman, Okla. The Sooners are 1-5 in games played outside of Norman this season.

Sleeper alert: Jerrell Jackson, Missouri

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Jackson posted eight catches for 142 yards and a score in Missouri’s victory over Iowa State.

The sophomore has been a reliable target lately for quarterback Blaine Gabbert. Jackson should see plenty of opportunities in MU’s final two games.

First, teams will constantly be focusing on Danario Alexander, who’s been the most productive receiver in the Big 12 this season. Second, starting wide receiver Jared Perry will miss the remainder of the season with a fractured tibia.

The door’s open for Jackson. And he’s only a sophomore, so the 6-foot-1, 190-pounder from Houston should take the reigns from seniors Alexander and Perry as Missouri’s No. 1 receiver next year.

Here’s the latest edition of the Sorrentino Scale. The number in parentheses is what the team was ranked last week:

  • 1 (1). Texas (11-0, 7-0): Big 12’s only hope to look good in an otherwise down year.
  • 2 (2). Oklahoma State (9-2, 6-1): Realistic chance of beating OU in Norman.
  • 3 (3). Nebraska (8-3, 5-2): Defense playing at championship level.
  • 4 (5). Texas Tech (7-4, 4-3): Maybe Taylor Potts is the guy after all at QB.
  • 5 (4). Oklahoma (6-5, 4-3): Worst Sooners have looked all year. Are injuries finally catching up?
  • 6 (6). Missouri (7-4, 3-4): Tigers playing as well as anyone in North right now.
  • 7 (7). Kansas State (6-6, 4-4): K-State should play in a bowl, but it scheduled one too many FCS cupcakes and will watch from home.
  • 8 (8). Texas A&M (6-5, 3-4): The inconsistency is amazing.
  • 9 (9). Iowa State (6-6, 3-5): Cyclones, off next week, should be well-rested before bowl game.
  • 10 (10). Kansas (5-6, 1-6): Will Mark Mangino be coaching Jayhawks for Missouri game?
  • 11 (11). Baylor (4-7, 1-6): Not much going on here.
  • 12 (12). Colorado (3-8, 2-5): From 10 wins and no excuses to 3-8 and a plethora of problems.

That should be all for now, friends. As always, discuss.